Leading and composite indicators · Brazil
Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity
The Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity combines several economic series for Brazil into one index meant to show where the economy is (coincident) or where it is heading (leading).
- Importance
- Low
- Released
- Monthly
- Next release
- Currency
- BRL · Brazilian real
- Central bank
- The Banco Central do Brasil
Latest figures
The latest release for AUG, published on 16 October 2026, came in at 0.3%, in line with the consensus of 0.3%, up from -0.2% the time before.
A result in line with the consensus usually causes little reaction: it was already priced in.
Over the last 12 releases it ranged from -0.7% to 0.8%, averaging 0.1%; it has been rising for three releases in a row.
| Released | For | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2026 | AUG | 0.3% | 0.3% | -0.2% |
| 16 Sep 2026 | JUL | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.6% |
| 17 Aug 2026 | JUN | -0.6% | -0.5% | 0.1% |
| 17 Jul 2026 | MAY | 0.1% | 0% | 0.5% |
| 17 Jun 2026 | APR | 0.5% | 0.6% | -0.7% |
| 18 May 2026 | MAR | -0.7% | -0.2% | 0.6% |
| 16 Apr 2026 | FEB | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% |
| 16 Mar 2026 | JAN | 0.8% | 0.85% | -0.2% |
| 19 Feb 2026 | DEC | -0.2% | -0.5% | 0.7% |
| 16 Jan 2026 | NOV | 0.7% | 0.3% | -0.1% ® |
| 15 Dec 2025 | OCT | -0.2% | 0.1% | -0.2% |
| 17 Nov 2025 | SEP | -0.2% | -0.1% | 0.4% |
Why it matters
No single statistic is reliable; a composite gives an early, smoother signal of turning points in the business cycle.
How it is calculated
Components such as new orders, building permits, share prices, credit and jobless claims are standardised and averaged; the index is reported as a level and a change.
What changes mean
- Several months of decline in a leading index have often preceded recessions, with false alarms.
- Markets usually react little because most components are already known.
Higher than expected: A stronger figure than expected points to a healthier economy: it usually supports the Brazilian real and local stocks, and can push bond yields up.
Lower than expected: A weaker figure than expected points to slowing activity: the Brazilian real tends to soften and markets price in lower rates.
A short history
Wesley Mitchell and Arthur Burns at the National Bureau of Economic Research developed leading indicators in the 1930s; the Conference Board publishes the best-known US index today.
Questions
What is the Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity?
The Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity combines several economic series for Brazil into one index meant to show where the economy is (coincident) or where it is heading (leading).
What was the latest Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity?
0.3% for AUG, published on 16 October 2026 (consensus 0.3%, previous -0.2%).
When is the next Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity?
On Tuesday 17 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Educational content only, not investment advice. Figures are the published results as recorded by our calendar; market reactions described are typical, not guaranteed.