Leading and composite indicators · United States
United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index
The United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index combines several economic series for the United States into one index meant to show where the economy is (coincident) or where it is heading (leading).
- Importance
- Medium
- Released
- Monthly
- Next release
- Currency
- USD · US dollar
- Central bank
- The Federal Reserve
Latest figures
The latest release for SEP, published on 26 October 2026, came in at 0.07, up from -0.08 the time before (revised).
Over the last 12 releases it ranged from -0.42 to 0.18, averaging -0.09; it has been rising for three releases in a row.
| Released | For | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct 2026 | SEP | 0.07 | – | -0.08 ® |
| 21 Sep 2026 | AUG | -0.04 | – | 0.08 ® |
| 24 Aug 2026 | JUL | -0.08 | – | 0.06 ® |
| 25 Jun 2026 | MAY | -0.10 | – | 0.19 ® |
| 26 May 2026 | APR | 0.14 | – | -0.15 ® |
| 23 Apr 2026 | MAR | -0.20 | – | 0.03 ® |
| 23 Mar 2026 | FEB | -0.11 | – | 0.20 ® |
| 23 Feb 2026 | DEC | -0.21 | – | -0.15 ® |
| 23 Feb 2026 | JAN | 0.18 | – | -0.21 |
| 26 Jan 2026 | OCT | -0.42 | – | -0.24 ® |
| 26 Jan 2026 | NOV | -0.04 | – | -0.42 |
| 22 Dec 2025 | SEP | -0.21 | – | -0.31 ® |
Why it matters
No single statistic is reliable; a composite gives an early, smoother signal of turning points in the business cycle.
How it is calculated
Components such as new orders, building permits, share prices, credit and jobless claims are standardised and averaged; the index is reported as a level and a change.
What changes mean
- Several months of decline in a leading index have often preceded recessions, with false alarms.
- Markets usually react little because most components are already known.
Higher than expected: A stronger figure than expected points to a healthier economy: it usually supports the US dollar and local stocks, and can push bond yields up.
Lower than expected: A weaker figure than expected points to slowing activity: the US dollar tends to soften and markets price in lower rates.
A short history
Wesley Mitchell and Arthur Burns at the National Bureau of Economic Research developed leading indicators in the 1930s; the Conference Board publishes the best-known US index today.
Questions
What is the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index?
The United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index combines several economic series for the United States into one index meant to show where the economy is (coincident) or where it is heading (leading).
What was the latest United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index?
0.07 for SEP, published on 26 October 2026.
When is the next United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index?
On Monday 23 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Educational content only, not investment advice. Figures are the published results as recorded by our calendar; market reactions described are typical, not guaranteed.