Monetary policy statement and projections · Euro Area
Euro Area ECB Staff Macroeconomic Projections
The Euro Area ECB Staff Macroeconomic Projections is the European Central Bank's statement or report explaining its policy decision, often with its own forecasts for growth, inflation and interest rates.
- Importance
- High
- Devise
- EUR · euro
- Banque centrale
- The European Central Bank
Derniers chiffres
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Pourquoi c’est important
The words and the forecasts tell markets where the deposit facility rate (with the main refinancing rate) is likely to go next. A central bank that raises its inflation forecasts or signals more hikes (the Fed's "dot plot" of rate projections, for example) can move the euro and bond yields more than the decision itself.
Mode de calcul
There is no single figure; the report contains the committee's projections (often the median of its members' views) and its assessment of the economy.
Ce que signifient les variations
- Compare the new projections with the previous ones: the revision is the news.
- Changes of a few words in the statement are often deliberate signals.
Supérieur aux attentes : Higher inflation or rate projections than expected tend to lift the euro and bond yields.
Inférieur aux attentes : Lower projections than expected tend to weaken the euro and lower bond yields.
Un bref historique
Central banks began to publish forecasts and statements as part of inflation targeting from the 1990s (the Bank of England's Inflation Report from 1993); the Fed's dot plot started in 2012.
Questions
What is the Euro Area ECB Staff Macroeconomic Projections?
The Euro Area ECB Staff Macroeconomic Projections is the European Central Bank's statement or report explaining its policy decision, often with its own forecasts for growth, inflation and interest rates.
Contenu éducatif uniquement, pas un conseil en investissement. Les chiffres sont les résultats publiés tels qu’enregistrés par notre calendrier ; les réactions de marché décrites sont typiques, non garanties.