Monetary policy statement and projections · Euro Area
Euro Area ECB Staff Macroeconomic Projections
The Euro Area ECB Staff Macroeconomic Projections is the European Central Bank's statement or report explaining its policy decision, often with its own forecasts for growth, inflation and interest rates.
- Importance
- High
- Currency
- EUR · euro
- Central bank
- The European Central Bank
Latest figures
No results of this release are shown yet. They appear here as soon as they are published.
Why it matters
The words and the forecasts tell markets where the deposit facility rate (with the main refinancing rate) is likely to go next. A central bank that raises its inflation forecasts or signals more hikes (the Fed's "dot plot" of rate projections, for example) can move the euro and bond yields more than the decision itself.
How it is calculated
There is no single figure; the report contains the committee's projections (often the median of its members' views) and its assessment of the economy.
What changes mean
- Compare the new projections with the previous ones: the revision is the news.
- Changes of a few words in the statement are often deliberate signals.
Higher than expected: Higher inflation or rate projections than expected tend to lift the euro and bond yields.
Lower than expected: Lower projections than expected tend to weaken the euro and lower bond yields.
A short history
Central banks began to publish forecasts and statements as part of inflation targeting from the 1990s (the Bank of England's Inflation Report from 1993); the Fed's dot plot started in 2012.
Questions
What is the Euro Area ECB Staff Macroeconomic Projections?
The Euro Area ECB Staff Macroeconomic Projections is the European Central Bank's statement or report explaining its policy decision, often with its own forecasts for growth, inflation and interest rates.
Educational content only, not investment advice. Figures are the published results as recorded by our calendar; market reactions described are typical, not guaranteed.