Inflation rate (consumer prices) · Euro Area
Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash
The Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash measures how much the prices that households in the Euro Area pay for a typical basket of goods and services have risen over the past year.
- Importance
- High
- Released
- Monthly
- Next release
- Currency
- EUR · euro
- Central bank
- The European Central Bank
Latest figures
The latest release for SEP, published on 2 October 2026, came in at 3.8%, above the consensus of 3.6%, up from 3.2% the time before.
A higher figure than expected makes the European Central Bank more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the euro and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
Over the last 12 releases it ranged from 1.7% to 3.8%, averaging 2.6%; it has been rising for three releases in a row.
| Released | For | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | SEP | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% |
| 1 Sep 2026 | AUG | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.9% |
| 31 Jul 2026 | JUL | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | JUN | 2.8% | 3% | 3.2% |
| 2 Jun 2026 | MAY | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | APR | 3% | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| 31 Mar 2026 | MAR | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| 3 Mar 2026 | FEB | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | JAN | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2% ® |
| 7 Jan 2026 | DEC | 2% | 2% | 2.1% |
| 2 Dec 2025 | NOV | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| 31 Oct 2025 | OCT | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% |
Why it matters
Inflation is what the European Central Bank is charged with controlling, so this is one of the most market-moving releases of the month. A figure above expectations makes rate hikes (or a longer wait for cuts) more likely, which usually lifts the euro and bond yields; a soft figure does the reverse. It also drives wages, pensions and benefits that are linked to prices.
How it is calculated
Eurostat collects many thousands of prices every month (food, rent, energy, transport, clothing, services) and weights them by how much households spend on each, from household surveys. The index compares the cost of the basket with a base year; the inflation rate is the change from the same month a year earlier.
CPI = Σ (price now ÷ base price) × weight × 100
Inflation (yoy) = CPI ÷ CPI 12 months ago − 1What changes mean
- Above the central bank's target (usually 2%) and rising: pressure for higher rates.
- Look at the core rate and services prices to see if the move is broad or driven by energy and food.
- Base effects: a big jump a year ago drops out of the yearly rate and can make it fall even if prices keep rising.
- Markets react to the difference from the consensus, often to a single decimal.
Higher than expected: A higher figure than expected makes the European Central Bank more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the euro and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
Lower than expected: A lower figure than expected gives the European Central Bank room to cut or hold rates lower: the euro tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
A short history
The United States began publishing a national consumer price index in 1919, the United Kingdom's index goes back to 1914. Inflation targeting, started by New Zealand in 1990, made this release the centre of monetary policy almost everywhere.
Questions
What is the Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash?
The Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash measures how much the prices that households in the Euro Area pay for a typical basket of goods and services have risen over the past year.
What was the latest Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash?
3.8% for SEP, published on 2 October 2026 (consensus 3.6%, previous 3.2%).
When is the next Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash?
On Wednesday 4 November 2026 at 10:00 UTC.
What is a good inflation rate?
Most central banks, including the European Central Bank in many cases, aim for about 2% a year: low enough not to erode savings, high enough to avoid deflation.
Why does the Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash move the euro?
Because it changes what traders expect the European Central Bank to do with the deposit facility rate (with the main refinancing rate), and interest rates decide what holding the currency pays.
Educational content only, not investment advice. Figures are the published results as recorded by our calendar; market reactions described are typical, not guaranteed.