Core inflation · Euro Area
Euro Area Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash
The Euro Area Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash measures the rise in consumer prices in the Euro Area without the most volatile items, usually food and energy (definitions vary by country).
- Importance
- High
- Released
- Monthly
- Next release
- Currency
- EUR · euro
- Central bank
- The European Central Bank
Latest figures
The latest release for SEP, published on 2 October 2026, came in at 2.5%, in line with the consensus of 2.5%, up from 2.4% the time before.
A result in line with the consensus usually causes little reaction: it was already priced in.
Over the last 12 releases it ranged from 2.2% to 2.5%, averaging 2.4%.
| Released | For | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | SEP | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| 1 Sep 2026 | AUG | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| 31 Jul 2026 | JUL | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | JUN | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| 2 Jun 2026 | MAY | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | APR | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| 31 Mar 2026 | MAR | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| 3 Mar 2026 | FEB | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | JAN | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| 7 Jan 2026 | DEC | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| 2 Dec 2025 | NOV | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| 31 Oct 2025 | OCT | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% |
Why it matters
Food and energy prices jump with harvests and oil, then fall back. The core rate shows the underlying trend that the European Central Bank can actually influence, so it often moves markets more than the headline. Services inflation, driven by wages, is the stickiest part.
How it is calculated
Eurostat takes the consumer price index basket, removes the excluded items and re-weights the rest; the change is measured month on month and against the same month a year earlier.
Core inflation (yoy) = core index ÷ core index 12 months ago − 1What changes mean
- A core rate falling towards the target lets the European Central Bank ease; a stubborn core keeps rates high.
- Monthly core changes of 0.2% compound to about 2.4% a year; 0.3% to about 3.7%.
- Markets compare the figure with the consensus to one decimal; a 0.1-point surprise moves currencies.
Higher than expected: A higher figure than expected makes the European Central Bank more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the euro and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
Lower than expected: A lower figure than expected gives the European Central Bank room to cut or hold rates lower: the euro tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
A short history
Economists Robert Gordon and others popularised excluding food and energy in the 1970s, when oil shocks made the headline rate misleading; most central banks now publish or watch a core measure.
Questions
What is the Euro Area Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash?
The Euro Area Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash measures the rise in consumer prices in the Euro Area without the most volatile items, usually food and energy (definitions vary by country).
What was the latest Euro Area Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash?
2.5% for SEP, published on 2 October 2026 (consensus 2.5%, previous 2.4%).
When is the next Euro Area Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash?
On Wednesday 4 November 2026 at 10:00 UTC.
Educational content only, not investment advice. Figures are the published results as recorded by our calendar; market reactions described are typical, not guaranteed.