Monetary policy statement and projections · United States
United States Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr
The United States Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr is the Federal Reserve's statement or report explaining its policy decision, often with its own forecasts for growth, inflation and interest rates.
- Importance
- High
- Released
- Quarterly
- Next release
- Currency
- USD · US dollar
- Central bank
- The Federal Reserve
Latest figures
The latest release, published on 16 September 2026, came in at 4.1%, up from 3.6% the time before.
Over the last 7 releases it ranged from 3.1% to 4.1%, averaging 3.5%; it has been rising for three releases in a row.
| Released | For | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2026 | – | 4.1% | – | 3.6% |
| 17 Jun 2026 | – | 3.6% | – | 3.1% |
| 18 Mar 2026 | – | 3.1% | – | 3.4% |
| 10 Dec 2025 | – | 3.4% | – | 3.4% |
| 17 Sep 2025 | – | 3.4% | – | 3.6% |
| 18 Jun 2025 | – | 3.6% | – | 3.4% |
| 19 Mar 2025 | – | 3.4% | – | 3.9% |
Why it matters
The words and the forecasts tell markets where the federal funds target range is likely to go next. A central bank that raises its inflation forecasts or signals more hikes (the Fed's "dot plot" of rate projections, for example) can move the US dollar and bond yields more than the decision itself.
How it is calculated
There is no single figure; the report contains the committee's projections (often the median of its members' views) and its assessment of the economy.
What changes mean
- Compare the new projections with the previous ones: the revision is the news.
- Changes of a few words in the statement are often deliberate signals.
Higher than expected: Higher inflation or rate projections than expected tend to lift the US dollar and bond yields.
Lower than expected: Lower projections than expected tend to weaken the US dollar and lower bond yields.
A short history
Central banks began to publish forecasts and statements as part of inflation targeting from the 1990s (the Bank of England's Inflation Report from 1993); the Fed's dot plot started in 2012.
Questions
What is the United States Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr?
The United States Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr is the Federal Reserve's statement or report explaining its policy decision, often with its own forecasts for growth, inflation and interest rates.
What was the latest United States Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr?
4.1%, published on 16 September 2026.
When is the next United States Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr?
On Wednesday 9 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Educational content only, not investment advice. Figures are the published results as recorded by our calendar; market reactions described are typical, not guaranteed.