Inflation expectations · Euro Area
Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations
The Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations measures the inflation that households, businesses or professional forecasters in the Euro Area expect over the coming months or years.
- Importance
- Medium
- Released
- Monthly
- Next release
- Currency
- EUR · euro
- Central bank
- The European Central Bank
Latest figures
The latest release for SEP, published on 23 October 2026, came in at 3.1%, up from 3% the time before.
Over the last 12 releases it ranged from 2.5% to 4.0%, averaging 3.1%; it has been rising for three releases in a row.
| Released | For | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | SEP | 3.1% | – | 3% |
| 18 Sep 2026 | AUG | 3% | – | 2.9% |
| 21 Aug 2026 | JUL | 2.9% | – | 3% |
| 26 Jun 2026 | MAY | 3.5% | – | 4% |
| 1 Jun 2026 | APR | 4% | – | 4% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | MAR | 4% | – | 2.5% |
| 27 Mar 2026 | FEB | 2.5% | – | 2.6% |
| 27 Feb 2026 | JAN | 2.6% | – | 2.8% |
| 30 Jan 2026 | DEC | 2.8% | – | 2.8% |
| 8 Jan 2026 | NOV | 2.8% | – | 2.8% |
| 28 Nov 2025 | OCT | 2.8% | – | 2.7% |
| 28 Oct 2025 | SEP | 2.7% | – | 2.8% |
Why it matters
Expectations feed into wage demands and price setting, so inflation can become self-fulfilling. Central banks watch them closely: well-anchored expectations near the target let the European Central Bank look through temporary price jumps.
How it is calculated
Survey respondents give their own estimate of future price growth; the release reports the median or average. Market-based versions use the gap between ordinary and inflation-linked bond yields.
What changes mean
- Rising long-term expectations are a red flag for central banks.
- Short-term expectations follow petrol and food prices closely.
Higher than expected: A higher figure than expected makes the European Central Bank more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the euro and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
Lower than expected: A lower figure than expected gives the European Central Bank room to cut or hold rates lower: the euro tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
A short history
Expectations became central to economics with the work of Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps in the late 1960s; the University of Michigan has asked US households about the prices they expect since its first surveys after the Second World War, and for a numeric inflation rate since the late 1970s.
Questions
What is the Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations?
The Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations measures the inflation that households, businesses or professional forecasters in the Euro Area expect over the coming months or years.
What was the latest Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations?
3.1% for SEP, published on 23 October 2026.
When is the next Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations?
On Thursday 3 December 2026.
Educational content only, not investment advice. Figures are the published results as recorded by our calendar; market reactions described are typical, not guaranteed.