Inflation expectations · New Zealand
New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations
The New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations measures the inflation that households, businesses or professional forecasters in New Zealand expect over the coming months or years.
- Importance
- Medium
- Released
- Quarterly
- Next release
- Currency
- NZD · New Zealand dollar
- Central bank
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Latest figures
The latest release for Q3, published on 13 August 2026, came in at 2.34%, down from 2.53% the time before.
Over the last 7 releases it ranged from 2.06% to 2.53%, averaging 2.31%.
| Released | For | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2026 | Q3 | 2.34% | – | 2.53% |
| 13 May 2026 | Q2 | 2.53% | – | 2.37% |
| 13 Feb 2026 | Q1 | 2.37% | – | 2.28% |
| 11 Nov 2025 | Q4 | 2.28% | – | 2.28% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | Q3 | 2.28% | – | 2.29% |
| 16 May 2025 | Q2 | 2.29% | – | 2.06% |
| 13 Feb 2025 | Q1 | 2.06% | – | 2.1% |
Why it matters
Expectations feed into wage demands and price setting, so inflation can become self-fulfilling. Central banks watch them closely: well-anchored expectations near the target let the Reserve Bank of New Zealand look through temporary price jumps.
How it is calculated
Survey respondents give their own estimate of future price growth; the release reports the median or average. Market-based versions use the gap between ordinary and inflation-linked bond yields.
What changes mean
- Rising long-term expectations are a red flag for central banks.
- Short-term expectations follow petrol and food prices closely.
Higher than expected: A higher figure than expected makes the Reserve Bank of New Zealand more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the New Zealand dollar and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
Lower than expected: A lower figure than expected gives the Reserve Bank of New Zealand room to cut or hold rates lower: the New Zealand dollar tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
A short history
Expectations became central to economics with the work of Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps in the late 1960s; the University of Michigan has asked US households about the prices they expect since its first surveys after the Second World War, and for a numeric inflation rate since the late 1970s.
New Zealand was the first country to adopt formal inflation targeting, in 1990.
Questions
What is the New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations?
The New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations measures the inflation that households, businesses or professional forecasters in New Zealand expect over the coming months or years.
What was the latest New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations?
2.34% for Q3, published on 13 August 2026.
When is the next New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations?
On Tuesday 17 November 2026 at 02:00 UTC.
Educational content only, not investment advice. Figures are the published results as recorded by our calendar; market reactions described are typical, not guaranteed.