Leading and composite indicators · United States
United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index
The United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index combines several economic series for the United States into one index meant to show where the economy is (coincident) or where it is heading (leading).
- Важность
- Medium
- Опубликовано
- Monthly
- Следующая публикация
- Валюта
- USD · US dollar
- Центральный банк
- The Federal Reserve
Последние данные
Последняя публикация, за SEP, вышла 2026-10-26; значение: 0.07. Это выше, чем -0.08 в прошлый раз (пересмотрено).
За последние 12 публикаций значение колебалось от -0.42 до 0.18, в среднем -0.09. Показатель рос три публикации подряд.
| Опубликовано | Для | Факт | Консенсус | Предыдущее |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct 2026 | SEP | 0.07 | – | -0.08 ® |
| 21 Sep 2026 | AUG | -0.04 | – | 0.08 ® |
| 24 Aug 2026 | JUL | -0.08 | – | 0.06 ® |
| 25 Jun 2026 | MAY | -0.10 | – | 0.19 ® |
| 26 May 2026 | APR | 0.14 | – | -0.15 ® |
| 23 Apr 2026 | MAR | -0.20 | – | 0.03 ® |
| 23 Mar 2026 | FEB | -0.11 | – | 0.20 ® |
| 23 Feb 2026 | DEC | -0.21 | – | -0.15 ® |
| 23 Feb 2026 | JAN | 0.18 | – | -0.21 |
| 26 Jan 2026 | OCT | -0.42 | – | -0.24 ® |
| 26 Jan 2026 | NOV | -0.04 | – | -0.42 |
| 22 Dec 2025 | SEP | -0.21 | – | -0.31 ® |
Почему это важно
No single statistic is reliable; a composite gives an early, smoother signal of turning points in the business cycle.
Как считается
Components such as new orders, building permits, share prices, credit and jobless claims are standardised and averaged; the index is reported as a level and a change.
Что означают изменения
- Several months of decline in a leading index have often preceded recessions, with false alarms.
- Markets usually react little because most components are already known.
Выше ожиданий: A stronger figure than expected points to a healthier economy: it usually supports the US dollar and local stocks, and can push bond yields up.
Ниже ожиданий: A weaker figure than expected points to slowing activity: the US dollar tends to soften and markets price in lower rates.
Краткая история
Wesley Mitchell and Arthur Burns at the National Bureau of Economic Research developed leading indicators in the 1930s; the Conference Board publishes the best-known US index today.
Вопросы
What is the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index?
The United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index combines several economic series for the United States into one index meant to show where the economy is (coincident) or where it is heading (leading).
What was the latest United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index?
0.07 for SEP, published on 26 October 2026.
When is the next United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index?
On Monday 23 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Только образовательный материал, не инвестиционная рекомендация. Цифры — опубликованные результаты в том виде, в каком их записал наш календарь; описанные реакции рынка типичны, но не гарантированы.