Leading and composite indicators · United States
United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index
The United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index combines several economic series for the United States into one index meant to show where the economy is (coincident) or where it is heading (leading).
- الأهمية
- Medium
- صدر
- Monthly
- الإصدار التالي
- العملة
- USD · US dollar
- البنك المركزي
- The Federal Reserve
أحدث الأرقام
صدر آخر إصدار، عن SEP، في 2026-10-26 وجاء عند 0.07. هذا أعلى من -0.08 في المرة السابقة (معدّل).
خلال آخر 12 إصدارات تراوح بين -0.42 و0.18، بمتوسط -0.09. ظل يرتفع لثلاثة إصدارات متتالية.
| صدر | المدة | الفعلي | التوقعات | السابق |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct 2026 | SEP | 0.07 | – | -0.08 ® |
| 21 Sep 2026 | AUG | -0.04 | – | 0.08 ® |
| 24 Aug 2026 | JUL | -0.08 | – | 0.06 ® |
| 25 Jun 2026 | MAY | -0.10 | – | 0.19 ® |
| 26 May 2026 | APR | 0.14 | – | -0.15 ® |
| 23 Apr 2026 | MAR | -0.20 | – | 0.03 ® |
| 23 Mar 2026 | FEB | -0.11 | – | 0.20 ® |
| 23 Feb 2026 | DEC | -0.21 | – | -0.15 ® |
| 23 Feb 2026 | JAN | 0.18 | – | -0.21 |
| 26 Jan 2026 | OCT | -0.42 | – | -0.24 ® |
| 26 Jan 2026 | NOV | -0.04 | – | -0.42 |
| 22 Dec 2025 | SEP | -0.21 | – | -0.31 ® |
لماذا يهم
No single statistic is reliable; a composite gives an early, smoother signal of turning points in the business cycle.
طريقة الحساب
Components such as new orders, building permits, share prices, credit and jobless claims are standardised and averaged; the index is reported as a level and a change.
ما تعنيه التغيرات
- Several months of decline in a leading index have often preceded recessions, with false alarms.
- Markets usually react little because most components are already known.
أعلى من المتوقع: A stronger figure than expected points to a healthier economy: it usually supports the US dollar and local stocks, and can push bond yields up.
أقل من المتوقع: A weaker figure than expected points to slowing activity: the US dollar tends to soften and markets price in lower rates.
لمحة تاريخية قصيرة
Wesley Mitchell and Arthur Burns at the National Bureau of Economic Research developed leading indicators in the 1930s; the Conference Board publishes the best-known US index today.
الأسئلة
What is the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index?
The United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index combines several economic series for the United States into one index meant to show where the economy is (coincident) or where it is heading (leading).
What was the latest United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index?
0.07 for SEP, published on 26 October 2026.
When is the next United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index?
On Monday 23 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
محتوى تعليمي فقط، وليس نصيحة استثمارية. الأرقام هي النتائج المنشورة كما سجّلتها مفكرتنا؛ وردود فعل السوق الموصوفة نموذجية وليست مضمونة.