Leading and composite indicators · South Africa
South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
The South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM combines several economic series for South Africa into one index meant to show where the economy is (coincident) or where it is heading (leading).
- Importance
- Low
- Publié
- Monthly
- Prochaine publication
- Devise
- ZAR · South African rand
- Banque centrale
- The South African Reserve Bank
Derniers chiffres
La dernière publication, pour AUG, est parue le 2026-10-27 et s’est établie à 1.1%. C’est plus que -0.8% la fois précédente (révisé).
Sur les 12 dernières publications, la valeur est allée de -1.8% à 2.4%, avec une moyenne de 0.1%. Elle a augmenté trois publications d’affilée.
| Publié | Pour | Réel | Consensus | Précédent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct 2026 | AUG | 1.1% | – | -0.8% ® |
| 22 Sep 2026 | JUL | -0.9% | – | -1% ® |
| 25 Aug 2026 | JUN | -1.4% | – | -0.3% |
| 23 Jun 2026 | APR | -1.8% | – | 1.5% ® |
| 26 May 2026 | MAR | 2.4% | – | 0.6% ® |
| 28 Apr 2026 | FEB | 0.5% | – | 0.6% |
| 24 Mar 2026 | JAN | 0.4% | – | -0.4% ® |
| 24 Feb 2026 | DEC | -1.0% | – | 1.4% |
| 27 Jan 2026 | NOV | 1.4% | – | 0.4% |
| 17 Dec 2025 | OCT | 0.4% | – | -1.2% |
| 25 Nov 2025 | SEP | -1.2% | – | 1.6% |
| 21 Oct 2025 | AUG | 1.6% | – | 0.9% |
Pourquoi c’est important
No single statistic is reliable; a composite gives an early, smoother signal of turning points in the business cycle.
Mode de calcul
Components such as new orders, building permits, share prices, credit and jobless claims are standardised and averaged; the index is reported as a level and a change.
Ce que signifient les variations
- Several months of decline in a leading index have often preceded recessions, with false alarms.
- Markets usually react little because most components are already known.
Supérieur aux attentes : A stronger figure than expected points to a healthier economy: it usually supports the South African rand and local stocks, and can push bond yields up.
Inférieur aux attentes : A weaker figure than expected points to slowing activity: the South African rand tends to soften and markets price in lower rates.
Un bref historique
Wesley Mitchell and Arthur Burns at the National Bureau of Economic Research developed leading indicators in the 1930s; the Conference Board publishes the best-known US index today.
Questions
What is the South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM?
The South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM combines several economic series for South Africa into one index meant to show where the economy is (coincident) or where it is heading (leading).
What was the latest South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM?
1.1% for AUG, published on 27 October 2026.
When is the next South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM?
On Tuesday 24 November 2026 at 07:00 UTC.
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