Leading and composite indicators · United States
United States RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
The United States RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index combines several economic series for the United States into one index meant to show where the economy is (coincident) or where it is heading (leading).
- اهمیت
- Medium
- منتشرشده
- Monthly
- انتشار بعدی
- ارز
- USD · US dollar
- بانک مرکزی
- The Federal Reserve
آخرین ارقام
آخرین انتشار، برای NOV، در 2026-11-03 منتشر شد و 48.5 بود. این بالاتر از اجماع 46.2 است. این بیشتر از 46.8 در دفعه قبل است.
A stronger figure than expected points to a healthier economy: it usually supports the US dollar and local stocks, and can push bond yields up.
در 12 انتشار اخیر بین 42.5 و 48.8 بود، با میانگین 45.9. سه انتشار پیاپی افزایش داشته است.
| منتشرشده | برای | واقعی | پیش‌بینی | قبلی |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov 2026 | NOV | 48.5 | 46.2 | 46.8 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | OCT | 46.8 | 44.5 | 45.6 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | SEP | 45.6 | 46.2 | 45.1 |
| 4 Aug 2026 | AUG | 45.1 | 47.5 | 45.5 |
| 7 Jul 2026 | JUL | 45.5 | 45 | 42.5 |
| 2 Jun 2026 | JUN | 42.5 | 44.5 | 42.6 |
| 5 May 2026 | MAY | 42.6 | 42 | 42.8 |
| 7 Apr 2026 | APR | 42.8 | 48.1 | 47.5 |
| 3 Mar 2026 | MAR | 47.5 | 50.1 | 48.8 |
| 3 Feb 2026 | FEB | 48.8 | 47.9 | 47.2 |
| 13 Jan 2026 | JAN | 47.2 | 48.2 | 47.9 |
| 2 Dec 2025 | DEC | 47.9 | 44.1 | 43.9 |
چرا مهم است
No single statistic is reliable; a composite gives an early, smoother signal of turning points in the business cycle.
روش محاسبه
Components such as new orders, building permits, share prices, credit and jobless claims are standardised and averaged; the index is reported as a level and a change.
تغییرات چه معنایی دارند
- Several months of decline in a leading index have often preceded recessions, with false alarms.
- Markets usually react little because most components are already known.
بالاتر از انتظار: A stronger figure than expected points to a healthier economy: it usually supports the US dollar and local stocks, and can push bond yields up.
پایین‌تر از انتظار: A weaker figure than expected points to slowing activity: the US dollar tends to soften and markets price in lower rates.
تاریخچه‌ای کوتاه
Wesley Mitchell and Arthur Burns at the National Bureau of Economic Research developed leading indicators in the 1930s; the Conference Board publishes the best-known US index today.
پرسش‌ها
What is the United States RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index?
The United States RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index combines several economic series for the United States into one index meant to show where the economy is (coincident) or where it is heading (leading).
What was the latest United States RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index?
48.5 for NOV, published on 3 November 2026 (consensus 46.2, previous 46.8).
When is the next United States RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index?
On Tuesday 1 December 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
فقط محتوای آموزشی است، نه توصیه سرمایه‌گذاری. ارقام نتایج منتشرشده‌اند که تقویم ما ثبت کرده است؛ واکنش‌های بازار که توصیف شده‌اند معمول‌اند، نه تضمینی.