Inflation expectations · United States
United States Michigan Inflation Expectations Final
The United States Michigan Inflation Expectations Final measures the inflation that households, businesses or professional forecasters in the United States expect over the coming months or years.
- اهمیت
- Medium
- منتشرشده
- Monthly
- انتشار بعدی
- ارز
- USD · US dollar
- بانک مرکزی
- The Federal Reserve
آخرین ارقام
آخرین انتشار، برای OCT، در 2026-10-23 منتشر شد و 4.7% بود. این مطابق اجماع 4.7% است. این بیشتر از 4.6% در دفعه قبل است.
نتیجه‌ای مطابق پیش‌بینی معمولاً واکنش کمی ایجاد می‌کند: قبلاً در قیمت لحاظ شده بود.
در 12 انتشار اخیر بین 3.4% و 4.8% بود، با میانگین 4.3%. سه انتشار پیاپی افزایش داشته است.
| منتشرشده | برای | واقعی | پیش‌بینی | قبلی |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | OCT | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% |
| 25 Sep 2026 | SEP | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4% |
| 28 Aug 2026 | AUG | 4% | 4.3% | 4.2% |
| 31 Jul 2026 | JUL | 4.2% | – | 4.6% |
| 26 Jun 2026 | JUN | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% |
| 22 May 2026 | MAY | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% |
| 24 Apr 2026 | APR | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% |
| 27 Mar 2026 | MAR | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| 20 Feb 2026 | FEB | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4% |
| 23 Jan 2026 | JAN | 4% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 19 Dec 2025 | DEC | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% |
| 21 Nov 2025 | NOV | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% |
چرا مهم است
Expectations feed into wage demands and price setting, so inflation can become self-fulfilling. Central banks watch them closely: well-anchored expectations near the target let the Federal Reserve look through temporary price jumps.
روش محاسبه
Survey respondents give their own estimate of future price growth; the release reports the median or average. Market-based versions use the gap between ordinary and inflation-linked bond yields.
تغییرات چه معنایی دارند
- Rising long-term expectations are a red flag for central banks.
- Short-term expectations follow petrol and food prices closely.
بالاتر از انتظار: A higher figure than expected makes the Federal Reserve more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the US dollar and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
پایین‌تر از انتظار: A lower figure than expected gives the Federal Reserve room to cut or hold rates lower: the US dollar tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
تاریخچه‌ای کوتاه
Expectations became central to economics with the work of Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps in the late 1960s; the University of Michigan has asked US households about the prices they expect since its first surveys after the Second World War, and for a numeric inflation rate since the late 1970s.
پرسش‌ها
What is the United States Michigan Inflation Expectations Final?
The United States Michigan Inflation Expectations Final measures the inflation that households, businesses or professional forecasters in the United States expect over the coming months or years.
What was the latest United States Michigan Inflation Expectations Final?
4.7% for OCT, published on 23 October 2026 (consensus 4.7%, previous 4.6%).
When is the next United States Michigan Inflation Expectations Final?
On Friday 20 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
فقط محتوای آموزشی است، نه توصیه سرمایه‌گذاری. ارقام نتایج منتشرشده‌اند که تقویم ما ثبت کرده است؛ واکنش‌های بازار که توصیف شده‌اند معمول‌اند، نه تضمینی.