Inflation expectations · United States
United States Michigan Inflation Expectations Final
The United States Michigan Inflation Expectations Final measures the inflation that households, businesses or professional forecasters in the United States expect over the coming months or years.
- Важность
- Medium
- Опубликовано
- Monthly
- Следующая публикация
- Валюта
- USD · US dollar
- Центральный банк
- The Federal Reserve
Последние данные
Последняя публикация, за OCT, вышла 2026-10-23; значение: 4.7%. Это соответствует консенсус-прогнозу 4.7%. Это выше, чем 4.6% в прошлый раз.
Результат в рамках консенсуса обычно вызывает слабую реакцию: он уже заложен в цену.
За последние 12 публикаций значение колебалось от 3.4% до 4.8%, в среднем 4.3%. Показатель рос три публикации подряд.
| Опубликовано | Для | Факт | Консенсус | Предыдущее |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | OCT | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% |
| 25 Sep 2026 | SEP | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4% |
| 28 Aug 2026 | AUG | 4% | 4.3% | 4.2% |
| 31 Jul 2026 | JUL | 4.2% | – | 4.6% |
| 26 Jun 2026 | JUN | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% |
| 22 May 2026 | MAY | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% |
| 24 Apr 2026 | APR | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% |
| 27 Mar 2026 | MAR | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| 20 Feb 2026 | FEB | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4% |
| 23 Jan 2026 | JAN | 4% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 19 Dec 2025 | DEC | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% |
| 21 Nov 2025 | NOV | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% |
Почему это важно
Expectations feed into wage demands and price setting, so inflation can become self-fulfilling. Central banks watch them closely: well-anchored expectations near the target let the Federal Reserve look through temporary price jumps.
Как считается
Survey respondents give their own estimate of future price growth; the release reports the median or average. Market-based versions use the gap between ordinary and inflation-linked bond yields.
Что означают изменения
- Rising long-term expectations are a red flag for central banks.
- Short-term expectations follow petrol and food prices closely.
Выше ожиданий: A higher figure than expected makes the Federal Reserve more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the US dollar and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
Ниже ожиданий: A lower figure than expected gives the Federal Reserve room to cut or hold rates lower: the US dollar tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
Краткая история
Expectations became central to economics with the work of Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps in the late 1960s; the University of Michigan has asked US households about the prices they expect since its first surveys after the Second World War, and for a numeric inflation rate since the late 1970s.
Вопросы
What is the United States Michigan Inflation Expectations Final?
The United States Michigan Inflation Expectations Final measures the inflation that households, businesses or professional forecasters in the United States expect over the coming months or years.
What was the latest United States Michigan Inflation Expectations Final?
4.7% for OCT, published on 23 October 2026 (consensus 4.7%, previous 4.6%).
When is the next United States Michigan Inflation Expectations Final?
On Friday 20 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Только образовательный материал, не инвестиционная рекомендация. Цифры — опубликованные результаты в том виде, в каком их записал наш календарь; описанные реакции рынка типичны, но не гарантированы.