Inflation expectations · United States
United States Michigan Inflation Expectations Final
The United States Michigan Inflation Expectations Final measures the inflation that households, businesses or professional forecasters in the United States expect over the coming months or years.
- الأهمية
- Medium
- صدر
- Monthly
- الإصدار التالي
- العملة
- USD · US dollar
- البنك المركزي
- The Federal Reserve
أحدث الأرقام
صدر آخر إصدار، عن OCT، في 2026-10-23 وجاء عند 4.7%. هذا مطابق للإجماع البالغ 4.7%. هذا أعلى من 4.6% في المرة السابقة.
النتيجة المطابقة للتوقعات تُحدث عادةً ردة فعل ضعيفة: فقد كانت مُسعَّرة مسبقًا.
خلال آخر 12 إصدارات تراوح بين 3.4% و4.8%، بمتوسط 4.3%. ظل يرتفع لثلاثة إصدارات متتالية.
| صدر | المدة | الفعلي | التوقعات | السابق |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | OCT | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% |
| 25 Sep 2026 | SEP | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4% |
| 28 Aug 2026 | AUG | 4% | 4.3% | 4.2% |
| 31 Jul 2026 | JUL | 4.2% | – | 4.6% |
| 26 Jun 2026 | JUN | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% |
| 22 May 2026 | MAY | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% |
| 24 Apr 2026 | APR | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% |
| 27 Mar 2026 | MAR | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| 20 Feb 2026 | FEB | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4% |
| 23 Jan 2026 | JAN | 4% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 19 Dec 2025 | DEC | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% |
| 21 Nov 2025 | NOV | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% |
لماذا يهم
Expectations feed into wage demands and price setting, so inflation can become self-fulfilling. Central banks watch them closely: well-anchored expectations near the target let the Federal Reserve look through temporary price jumps.
طريقة الحساب
Survey respondents give their own estimate of future price growth; the release reports the median or average. Market-based versions use the gap between ordinary and inflation-linked bond yields.
ما تعنيه التغيرات
- Rising long-term expectations are a red flag for central banks.
- Short-term expectations follow petrol and food prices closely.
أعلى من المتوقع: A higher figure than expected makes the Federal Reserve more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the US dollar and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
أقل من المتوقع: A lower figure than expected gives the Federal Reserve room to cut or hold rates lower: the US dollar tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
لمحة تاريخية قصيرة
Expectations became central to economics with the work of Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps in the late 1960s; the University of Michigan has asked US households about the prices they expect since its first surveys after the Second World War, and for a numeric inflation rate since the late 1970s.
الأسئلة
What is the United States Michigan Inflation Expectations Final?
The United States Michigan Inflation Expectations Final measures the inflation that households, businesses or professional forecasters in the United States expect over the coming months or years.
What was the latest United States Michigan Inflation Expectations Final?
4.7% for OCT, published on 23 October 2026 (consensus 4.7%, previous 4.6%).
When is the next United States Michigan Inflation Expectations Final?
On Friday 20 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
محتوى تعليمي فقط، وليس نصيحة استثمارية. الأرقام هي النتائج المنشورة كما سجّلتها مفكرتنا؛ وردود فعل السوق الموصوفة نموذجية وليست مضمونة.