Inflation expectations · South Africa
South Africa Inflation Expectations
The South Africa Inflation Expectations measures the inflation that households, businesses or professional forecasters in South Africa expect over the coming months or years.
- Importance
- Low
- Released
- Quarterly
- Next release
- Currency
- ZAR · South African rand
- Central bank
- The South African Reserve Bank
Latest figures
The latest release for Q3, published on 16 September 2026, came in at 4%, down from 4.2% the time before.
Over the last 7 releases it ranged from 3.6% to 4.3%, averaging 4.1%.
| Released | For | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2026 | Q3 | 4% | – | 4.2% |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Q2 | 4.2% | – | 3.6% |
| 16 Mar 2026 | Q1 | 3.6% | – | 3.7% ® |
| 12 Dec 2025 | Q4 | 3.8% | – | 4.2% |
| 15 Sep 2025 | Q3 | 4.2% | – | 4.3% |
| 2 Jul 2025 | Q2 | 4.3% | – | 4.6% ® |
| 17 Mar 2025 | Q1 | 4.3% | – | 4.5% |
Why it matters
Expectations feed into wage demands and price setting, so inflation can become self-fulfilling. Central banks watch them closely: well-anchored expectations near the target let the South African Reserve Bank look through temporary price jumps.
How it is calculated
Survey respondents give their own estimate of future price growth; the release reports the median or average. Market-based versions use the gap between ordinary and inflation-linked bond yields.
What changes mean
- Rising long-term expectations are a red flag for central banks.
- Short-term expectations follow petrol and food prices closely.
Higher than expected: A higher figure than expected makes the South African Reserve Bank more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the South African rand and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
Lower than expected: A lower figure than expected gives the South African Reserve Bank room to cut or hold rates lower: the South African rand tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
A short history
Expectations became central to economics with the work of Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps in the late 1960s; the University of Michigan has asked US households about the prices they expect since its first surveys after the Second World War, and for a numeric inflation rate since the late 1970s.
Questions
What is the South Africa Inflation Expectations?
The South Africa Inflation Expectations measures the inflation that households, businesses or professional forecasters in South Africa expect over the coming months or years.
What was the latest South Africa Inflation Expectations?
4% for Q3, published on 16 September 2026.
When is the next South Africa Inflation Expectations?
On Friday 11 December 2026.
Educational content only, not investment advice. Figures are the published results as recorded by our calendar; market reactions described are typical, not guaranteed.