Underlying inflation measures · Australia
Australia Monthly CPI Indicator
The Australia Monthly CPI Indicator is an alternative measure of underlying inflation in Australia, built to strip out one-off price jumps without simply dropping whole categories.
- Importance
- Medium
- Released
- Monthly
- Currency
- AUD · Australian dollar
- Central bank
- The Reserve Bank of Australia
Latest figures
The latest release for SEP, published on 29 October 2025, came in at 3.5%, above the consensus of 3.1%, up from 3% the time before.
A higher figure than expected makes the Reserve Bank of Australia more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the Australian dollar and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
Over the last 10 releases it ranged from 1.9% to 3.5%, averaging 2.5%; it has been rising for three releases in a row.
| Released | For | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2025 | SEP | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3% |
| 24 Sep 2025 | AUG | 3% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 27 Aug 2025 | JUL | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | JUN | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| 25 Jun 2025 | MAY | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% |
| 28 May 2025 | APR | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | MAR | 2.4% | – | 2.4% |
| 26 Mar 2025 | FEB | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| 26 Feb 2025 | JAN | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| 29 Jan 2025 | DEC | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% |
Why it matters
the Reserve Bank of Australia watches these measures to judge whether inflation is broad-based. When they agree with the headline, the trend is real; when they diverge, a few items are distorting the picture.
How it is calculated
A trimmed mean removes the items with the largest and smallest price changes (for example the top and bottom 15% by weight) and averages the rest; a weighted median takes the price change in the middle of the distribution. Other variants hold mortgage interest costs fixed or use common components.
What changes mean
- A trimmed mean or median near the target is the clearest sign that inflation is under control.
- When the headline jumps but these do not, the move is likely temporary.
Higher than expected: A higher figure than expected makes the Reserve Bank of Australia more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the Australian dollar and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
Lower than expected: A lower figure than expected gives the Reserve Bank of Australia room to cut or hold rates lower: the Australian dollar tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
A short history
Trimmed means were developed in the 1990s (Bryan and Cecchetti at the Cleveland Fed); the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada give them a central place in their policy.
Questions
What is the Australia Monthly CPI Indicator?
The Australia Monthly CPI Indicator is an alternative measure of underlying inflation in Australia, built to strip out one-off price jumps without simply dropping whole categories.
What was the latest Australia Monthly CPI Indicator?
3.5% for SEP, published on 29 October 2025 (consensus 3.1%, previous 3%).
Educational content only, not investment advice. Figures are the published results as recorded by our calendar; market reactions described are typical, not guaranteed.