Underlying inflation measures · Canada
Canada CPI Median YoY
The Canada CPI Median YoY is an alternative measure of underlying inflation in Canada, built to strip out one-off price jumps without simply dropping whole categories.
- Importance
- Medium
- Released
- Monthly
- Next release
- Currency
- CAD · Canadian dollar
- Central bank
- The Bank of Canada
Latest figures
The latest release for SEP, published on 19 October 2026, came in at 1.9%, in line with the consensus of 1.9%, down from 2% the time before.
A result in line with the consensus usually causes little reaction: it was already priced in.
Over the last 12 releases it ranged from 1.9% to 2.9%, averaging 2.3%.
| Released | For | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 2026 | SEP | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2% |
| 14 Sep 2026 | AUG | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 17 Aug 2026 | JUL | 2% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| 20 Jul 2026 | JUN | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| 22 Jun 2026 | MAY | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| 19 May 2026 | APR | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% |
| 20 Apr 2026 | MAR | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| 16 Mar 2026 | FEB | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% |
| 17 Feb 2026 | JAN | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% ® |
| 19 Jan 2026 | DEC | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% |
| 15 Dec 2025 | NOV | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3% ® |
| 17 Nov 2025 | OCT | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% ® |
Why it matters
the Bank of Canada watches these measures to judge whether inflation is broad-based. When they agree with the headline, the trend is real; when they diverge, a few items are distorting the picture.
How it is calculated
A trimmed mean removes the items with the largest and smallest price changes (for example the top and bottom 15% by weight) and averages the rest; a weighted median takes the price change in the middle of the distribution. Other variants hold mortgage interest costs fixed or use common components.
What changes mean
- A trimmed mean or median near the target is the clearest sign that inflation is under control.
- When the headline jumps but these do not, the move is likely temporary.
Higher than expected: A higher figure than expected makes the Bank of Canada more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the Canadian dollar and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
Lower than expected: A lower figure than expected gives the Bank of Canada room to cut or hold rates lower: the Canadian dollar tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
A short history
Trimmed means were developed in the 1990s (Bryan and Cecchetti at the Cleveland Fed); the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada give them a central place in their policy.
Questions
What is the Canada CPI Median YoY?
The Canada CPI Median YoY is an alternative measure of underlying inflation in Canada, built to strip out one-off price jumps without simply dropping whole categories.
What was the latest Canada CPI Median YoY?
1.9% for SEP, published on 19 October 2026 (consensus 1.9%, previous 2%).
When is the next Canada CPI Median YoY?
On Monday 16 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Educational content only, not investment advice. Figures are the published results as recorded by our calendar; market reactions described are typical, not guaranteed.