Underlying inflation measures · Canada
Canada CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY
The Canada CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY is an alternative measure of underlying inflation in Canada, built to strip out one-off price jumps without simply dropping whole categories.
- Importance
- Medium
- Released
- Monthly
- Next release
- Currency
- CAD · Canadian dollar
- Central bank
- The Bank of Canada
Latest figures
The latest release for SEP, published on 19 October 2026, came in at 1.8%, below the consensus of 1.9%, down from 1.9% the time before.
A lower figure than expected gives the Bank of Canada room to cut or hold rates lower: the Canadian dollar tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
Over the last 12 releases it ranged from 1.8% to 3.0%, averaging 2.2%.
| Released | For | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 2026 | SEP | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| 14 Sep 2026 | AUG | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| 17 Aug 2026 | JUL | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% ® |
| 20 Jul 2026 | JUN | 1.8% | 2% | 2% |
| 22 Jun 2026 | MAY | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 19 May 2026 | APR | 2% | 2.1% | 2.2% |
| 20 Apr 2026 | MAR | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| 16 Mar 2026 | FEB | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| 17 Feb 2026 | JAN | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| 19 Jan 2026 | DEC | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% ® |
| 15 Dec 2025 | NOV | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3% |
| 17 Nov 2025 | OCT | 3% | 3% | 3.1% |
Why it matters
the Bank of Canada watches these measures to judge whether inflation is broad-based. When they agree with the headline, the trend is real; when they diverge, a few items are distorting the picture.
How it is calculated
A trimmed mean removes the items with the largest and smallest price changes (for example the top and bottom 15% by weight) and averages the rest; a weighted median takes the price change in the middle of the distribution. Other variants hold mortgage interest costs fixed or use common components.
What changes mean
- A trimmed mean or median near the target is the clearest sign that inflation is under control.
- When the headline jumps but these do not, the move is likely temporary.
Higher than expected: A higher figure than expected makes the Bank of Canada more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the Canadian dollar and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
Lower than expected: A lower figure than expected gives the Bank of Canada room to cut or hold rates lower: the Canadian dollar tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
A short history
Trimmed means were developed in the 1990s (Bryan and Cecchetti at the Cleveland Fed); the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada give them a central place in their policy.
Questions
What is the Canada CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY?
The Canada CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY is an alternative measure of underlying inflation in Canada, built to strip out one-off price jumps without simply dropping whole categories.
What was the latest Canada CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY?
1.8% for SEP, published on 19 October 2026 (consensus 1.9%, previous 1.9%).
When is the next Canada CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY?
On Monday 16 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Educational content only, not investment advice. Figures are the published results as recorded by our calendar; market reactions described are typical, not guaranteed.