United States ISM Manufacturing PMI

最新数据

最新一期（OCT）于 2026-11-02 公布，数值为 55.5。 高于 54.6 的市场预期。 高于上次的 54.5。

A stronger figure than expected points to a healthier economy: it usually supports the US dollar and local stocks, and can push bond yields up.

最近 12 次公布中介于 47.9 至 55.6，平均 52.8。

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为何重要

ISM is the oldest and most watched US business survey. Its headline indexes are released on the first business days of the month and give the first read of the month's economy; the prices component is watched as an early inflation signal and the new-orders component as a guide to the months ahead.

计算方法

Purchasing managers answer whether activity is higher, the same or lower than the previous month. The index is the share answering higher plus half the share answering the same.

Diffusion index = % higher + ½ × % same
Above 50 = expanding, below 50 = contracting

变化意味着什么

• The distance from 50 matters more than the change: 48 is mild contraction, 45 is serious.
• Prices paid above 60 has usually meant rising goods inflation.
• The services index covers most of the economy and often matters more than manufacturing.

简史

Purchasing managers' surveys in the US date back to the 1930s; the national survey that became the ISM Report on Business has been published monthly since 1948.

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