Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv

最新数据

最新一期（Q3）于 2026-11-03 公布，数值为 1.9%。 高于 0.8% 的市场预期。 高于上次的 -0.7%（已修正）。

A stronger figure than expected points to a healthier economy: it usually supports the Hong Kong dollar and local stocks, and can push bond yields up.

最近 8 次公布中介于 -0.6% 至 2.9%，平均 1.1%。

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为何重要

GDP is the broadest measure of economic health. Two quarters of contraction are the common rule of thumb for a recession. Stronger growth supports corporate earnings, jobs and the Hong Kong dollar, and can push the Hong Kong Monetary Authority towards higher rates; a contraction raises the odds of cuts.

计算方法

the Census and Statistics Department adds up spending in the economy: consumption + investment + government spending + exports − imports, measured at constant prices (real GDP) and adjusted for seasonal patterns. The first (advance or flash) estimate is revised as more data arrive. The US annualises the quarterly change.

GDP = C + I + G + (X − M)
Growth (qoq) = real GDP ÷ real GDP last quarter − 1
Annualised = (1 + qoq)⁴ − 1

变化意味着什么

• Compare with the consensus and with the previous quarter; the first estimate gets the biggest reaction.
• Look at the mix: growth from consumption and investment is healthier than growth from inventories.
• An annualised US figure of 2% is close to its long-run trend; 0.5% quarter on quarter is similar in European terms.

简史

Simon Kuznets built the first national income accounts for the US Congress in 1934. GDP replaced GNP as the US headline measure in 1991; international standards are set in the UN System of National Accounts.

The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar, so the base rate follows the Fed.

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