PCE and GDP price indexes · United States
United States Core PCE Price Index YoY
The United States Core PCE Price Index YoY measures the prices of everything households (PCE) or the whole economy (deflator) buy. In the United States it is one of the main measures of inflation.
- Важность
- High
- Опубликовано
- Monthly
- Следующая публикация
- Валюта
- USD · US dollar
- Центральный банк
- The Federal Reserve
Последние данные
Последняя публикация, за SEP, вышла 2026-10-29; значение: 3.1%. Это соответствует консенсус-прогнозу 3.1%. Это выше, чем 3% в прошлый раз.
Результат в рамках консенсуса обычно вызывает слабую реакцию: он уже заложен в цену.
За последние 12 публикаций значение колебалось от 2.7% до 3.4%, в среднем 3.1%.
| Опубликовано | Для | Факт | Консенсус | Предыдущее |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026 | SEP | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3% |
| 30 Sep 2026 | AUG | 3% | 3.3% | 3% ® |
| 26 Aug 2026 | JUL | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| 30 Jul 2026 | JUN | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% |
| 25 Jun 2026 | MAY | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% |
| 28 May 2026 | APR | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | MAR | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3% |
| 9 Apr 2026 | FEB | 3% | 3% | 3.1% |
| 13 Mar 2026 | JAN | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3% |
| 20 Feb 2026 | DEC | 3% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 22 Jan 2026 | OCT | 2.7% | – | 2.8% |
| 22 Jan 2026 | NOV | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% |
Почему это важно
In the United States the Federal Reserve's 2% target is defined on the PCE price index, and the core measure (without food and energy) is the one policymakers quote most. Because CPI comes out first, markets usually know roughly what PCE will show; surprises come from the parts measured differently, such as health care.
Как считается
PCE prices are built from the same price data as CPI and producer prices, but weighted by what households actually spend (including what is paid on their behalf, like employer health insurance), and the weights change every period. The GDP deflator divides nominal GDP by real GDP.
Deflator = nominal GDP ÷ real GDP × 100
PCE inflation = PCE index ÷ PCE index a year ago − 1Что означают изменения
- Core PCE above 2% and rising keeps the Fed cautious about cutting rates.
- The monthly change annualised (× 12) shows the latest pace; three-month averages smooth the noise.
Выше ожиданий: A higher figure than expected makes the Federal Reserve more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the US dollar and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
Ниже ожиданий: A lower figure than expected gives the Federal Reserve room to cut or hold rates lower: the US dollar tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
Краткая история
The Fed switched its preferred inflation measure from CPI to PCE in 2000 and wrote the 2% PCE target into its strategy in 2012.
Вопросы
What is the United States Core PCE Price Index YoY?
The United States Core PCE Price Index YoY measures the prices of everything households (PCE) or the whole economy (deflator) buy. In the United States it is one of the main measures of inflation.
What was the latest United States Core PCE Price Index YoY?
3.1% for SEP, published on 29 October 2026 (consensus 3.1%, previous 3%).
When is the next United States Core PCE Price Index YoY?
On Wednesday 25 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Только образовательный материал, не инвестиционная рекомендация. Цифры — опубликованные результаты в том виде, в каком их записал наш календарь; описанные реакции рынка типичны, но не гарантированы.