PCE and GDP price indexes · United States
United States Core PCE Price Index YoY
The United States Core PCE Price Index YoY measures the prices of everything households (PCE) or the whole economy (deflator) buy. In the United States it is one of the main measures of inflation.
- Importance
- High
- Publié
- Monthly
- Prochaine publication
- Devise
- USD · US dollar
- Banque centrale
- The Federal Reserve
Derniers chiffres
La dernière publication, pour SEP, est parue le 2026-10-29 et s’est établie à 3.1%. C’est conforme au consensus de 3.1%. C’est plus que 3% la fois précédente.
Un résultat conforme au consensus provoque généralement peu de réaction : il était déjà intégré dans les prix.
Sur les 12 dernières publications, la valeur est allée de 2.7% à 3.4%, avec une moyenne de 3.1%.
| Publié | Pour | Réel | Consensus | Précédent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026 | SEP | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3% |
| 30 Sep 2026 | AUG | 3% | 3.3% | 3% ® |
| 26 Aug 2026 | JUL | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| 30 Jul 2026 | JUN | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% |
| 25 Jun 2026 | MAY | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% |
| 28 May 2026 | APR | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | MAR | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3% |
| 9 Apr 2026 | FEB | 3% | 3% | 3.1% |
| 13 Mar 2026 | JAN | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3% |
| 20 Feb 2026 | DEC | 3% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 22 Jan 2026 | OCT | 2.7% | – | 2.8% |
| 22 Jan 2026 | NOV | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% |
Pourquoi c’est important
In the United States the Federal Reserve's 2% target is defined on the PCE price index, and the core measure (without food and energy) is the one policymakers quote most. Because CPI comes out first, markets usually know roughly what PCE will show; surprises come from the parts measured differently, such as health care.
Mode de calcul
PCE prices are built from the same price data as CPI and producer prices, but weighted by what households actually spend (including what is paid on their behalf, like employer health insurance), and the weights change every period. The GDP deflator divides nominal GDP by real GDP.
Deflator = nominal GDP ÷ real GDP × 100
PCE inflation = PCE index ÷ PCE index a year ago − 1Ce que signifient les variations
- Core PCE above 2% and rising keeps the Fed cautious about cutting rates.
- The monthly change annualised (× 12) shows the latest pace; three-month averages smooth the noise.
Supérieur aux attentes : A higher figure than expected makes the Federal Reserve more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the US dollar and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
Inférieur aux attentes : A lower figure than expected gives the Federal Reserve room to cut or hold rates lower: the US dollar tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
Un bref historique
The Fed switched its preferred inflation measure from CPI to PCE in 2000 and wrote the 2% PCE target into its strategy in 2012.
Questions
What is the United States Core PCE Price Index YoY?
The United States Core PCE Price Index YoY measures the prices of everything households (PCE) or the whole economy (deflator) buy. In the United States it is one of the main measures of inflation.
What was the latest United States Core PCE Price Index YoY?
3.1% for SEP, published on 29 October 2026 (consensus 3.1%, previous 3%).
When is the next United States Core PCE Price Index YoY?
On Wednesday 25 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Contenu éducatif uniquement, pas un conseil en investissement. Les chiffres sont les résultats publiés tels qu’enregistrés par notre calendrier ; les réactions de marché décrites sont typiques, non garanties.