Inflation rate (consumer prices) · South Africa
South Africa Inflation Rate YoY
The South Africa Inflation Rate YoY measures how much the prices that households in South Africa pay for a typical basket of goods and services have risen over the past year.
- Важность
- Medium
- Опубликовано
- Monthly
- Следующая публикация
- Валюта
- ZAR · South African rand
- Центральный банк
- The South African Reserve Bank
Последние данные
Последняя публикация, за SEP, вышла 2026-10-21; значение: 4.5%. Это ниже консенсус-прогноза 4.7%. Это выше, чем 4.4% в прошлый раз.
A lower figure than expected gives the South African Reserve Bank room to cut or hold rates lower: the South African rand tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
За последние 12 публикаций значение колебалось от 3.0% до 4.5%, в среднем 3.8%. Показатель рос три публикации подряд.
| Опубликовано | Для | Факт | Консенсус | Предыдущее |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2026 | SEP | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% |
| 23 Sep 2026 | AUG | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% |
| 19 Aug 2026 | JUL | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5% |
| 17 Jun 2026 | MAY | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4% |
| 20 May 2026 | APR | 4% | 3.9% | 3.1% |
| 22 Apr 2026 | MAR | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3% |
| 18 Mar 2026 | FEB | 3% | 3.1% | 3.5% |
| 18 Feb 2026 | JAN | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% |
| 21 Jan 2026 | DEC | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% |
| 17 Dec 2025 | NOV | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| 19 Nov 2025 | OCT | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% |
| 22 Oct 2025 | SEP | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.3% |
Почему это важно
Inflation is what the South African Reserve Bank is charged with controlling, so this is one of the most market-moving releases of the month. A figure above expectations makes rate hikes (or a longer wait for cuts) more likely, which usually lifts the South African rand and bond yields; a soft figure does the reverse. It also drives wages, pensions and benefits that are linked to prices.
Как считается
Statistics South Africa collects many thousands of prices every month (food, rent, energy, transport, clothing, services) and weights them by how much households spend on each, from household surveys. The index compares the cost of the basket with a base year; the inflation rate is the change from the same month a year earlier.
CPI = Σ (price now ÷ base price) × weight × 100
Inflation (yoy) = CPI ÷ CPI 12 months ago − 1Что означают изменения
- Above the central bank's target (usually 2%) and rising: pressure for higher rates.
- Look at the core rate and services prices to see if the move is broad or driven by energy and food.
- Base effects: a big jump a year ago drops out of the yearly rate and can make it fall even if prices keep rising.
- Markets react to the difference from the consensus, often to a single decimal.
Выше ожиданий: A higher figure than expected makes the South African Reserve Bank more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the South African rand and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
Ниже ожиданий: A lower figure than expected gives the South African Reserve Bank room to cut or hold rates lower: the South African rand tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
Краткая история
The United States began publishing a national consumer price index in 1919, the United Kingdom's index goes back to 1914. Inflation targeting, started by New Zealand in 1990, made this release the centre of monetary policy almost everywhere.
Вопросы
What is the South Africa Inflation Rate YoY?
The South Africa Inflation Rate YoY measures how much the prices that households in South Africa pay for a typical basket of goods and services have risen over the past year.
What was the latest South Africa Inflation Rate YoY?
4.5% for SEP, published on 21 October 2026 (consensus 4.7%, previous 4.4%).
When is the next South Africa Inflation Rate YoY?
On Wednesday 18 November 2026 at 08:00 UTC.
What is a good inflation rate?
Most central banks, including the South African Reserve Bank in many cases, aim for about 2% a year: low enough not to erode savings, high enough to avoid deflation.
Why does the South Africa Inflation Rate YoY move the South African rand?
Because it changes what traders expect the South African Reserve Bank to do with the repo rate, and interest rates decide what holding the currency pays.
Только образовательный материал, не инвестиционная рекомендация. Цифры — опубликованные результаты в том виде, в каком их записал наш календарь; описанные реакции рынка типичны, но не гарантированы.