Balance of trade · China
China Exports YoY
The China Exports YoY shows the difference between the value of goods (and sometimes services) that China sells abroad and what it buys from abroad, or the growth of exports and imports.
- Важность
- Medium
- Опубликовано
- Monthly
- Следующая публикация
- Валюта
- CNH · Chinese yuan (renminbi)
- Центральный банк
- The People's Bank of China
Последние данные
Последняя публикация, за SEP, вышла 2026-10-14; значение: 36.3%. Это выше консенсус-прогноза 25.5%. Это выше, чем 25% в прошлый раз.
A larger surplus (or smaller deficit) than expected tends to support the Chinese yuan (renminbi).
За последние 12 публикаций значение колебалось от -1.1% до 36.3%, в среднем 15.8%. Показатель рос три публикации подряд.
| Опубликовано | Для | Факт | Консенсус | Предыдущее |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | SEP | 36.3% | 25.5% | 25% |
| 8 Sep 2026 | AUG | 25% | 25% | 23.9% |
| 7 Aug 2026 | JUL | 23.9% | 22.2% | 27% |
| 14 Jul 2026 | JUN | 27% | 18.2% | 19.4% |
| 9 Jun 2026 | MAY | 19.4% | 15% | 14.1% |
| 9 May 2026 | APR | 14.1% | 7.9% | 2.5% |
| 14 Apr 2026 | MAR | 2.5% | 8.3% | 39.6% |
| 10 Mar 2026 | JAN-FEB | 21.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% |
| 14 Jan 2026 | DEC | 6.6% | 3% | 5.9% |
| 8 Dec 2025 | NOV | 5.9% | 3.8% | -1.1% |
| 7 Nov 2025 | OCT | -1.1% | 3% | 8.3% |
| 13 Oct 2025 | SEP | 8.3% | 6% | 4.4% |
Почему это важно
Exports are a big part of demand for open economies (Germany, China, Japan, Korea, the Netherlands). A larger surplus means more foreign demand for the Chinese yuan (renminbi); strong imports signal domestic demand. China's figures are read as a gauge of world demand.
Как считается
Customs records the value of goods crossing the border; services come from surveys. The balance is exports minus imports, usually seasonally adjusted.
Trade balance = exports − importsЧто означают изменения
- Look at exports and imports separately: a wider surplus from collapsing imports is a sign of weak domestic demand, not strength.
- Exchange-rate moves take months to affect trade volumes (the J-curve).
Выше ожиданий: A larger surplus (or smaller deficit) than expected tends to support the Chinese yuan (renminbi).
Ниже ожиданий: A smaller surplus (or larger deficit) than expected tends to weigh on the Chinese yuan (renminbi).
Краткая история
Trade balances were the obsession of mercantilism in the 16th–18th centuries; David Hume's price-specie flow mechanism (1752) explained why surpluses tend to correct themselves.
Вопросы
What is the China Exports YoY?
The China Exports YoY shows the difference between the value of goods (and sometimes services) that China sells abroad and what it buys from abroad, or the growth of exports and imports.
What was the latest China Exports YoY?
36.3% for SEP, published on 14 October 2026 (consensus 25.5%, previous 25%).
When is the next China Exports YoY?
On Tuesday 10 November 2026 at 03:00 UTC.
Только образовательный материал, не инвестиционная рекомендация. Цифры — опубликованные результаты в том виде, в каком их записал наш календарь; описанные реакции рынка типичны, но не гарантированы.