Historical Volatility

सरल शब्दों में विचार

Volatility measures risk: the bigger and more frequent the moves, the higher it is. Expressed per year, it can be compared with option prices and other markets.

गणना कैसे होती है

Take the logarithmic return of each candle, compute their standard deviation over N candles and scale it to a year (√252 for daily candles, adjusted for other timeframes), in per cent.

r = ln(close ÷ close₋₁)
HV = stdev(r, N) × √(periods per year) × 100

इसका उपयोग कैसे करें

• Position sizing: smaller positions when volatility is high.
• Spotting quiet periods that often come before big moves.

निष्कर्ष निकालना

• Compare with the ticker's own history: 10% is high for EURUSD and low for bitcoin.

इन बातों का ध्यान रखें

• Backward-looking: it measures what has been, not what will be.

थोड़ा इतिहास

Standard deviation of returns became the textbook risk measure with modern portfolio theory (1950s) and option pricing (1970s).