Extra indicators
Historical Volatility
How much the price has been swinging, as an annual percentage, from the standard deviation of returns.
La idea en pocas palabras
Volatility measures risk: the bigger and more frequent the moves, the higher it is. Expressed per year, it can be compared with option prices and other markets.
Cómo se calcula
Take the logarithmic return of each candle, compute their standard deviation over N candles and scale it to a year (√252 for daily candles, adjusted for other timeframes), in per cent.
r = ln(close ÷ close₋₁)
HV = stdev(r, N) × √(periods per year) × 100Cómo usarlo
- Position sizing: smaller positions when volatility is high.
- Spotting quiet periods that often come before big moves.
Sacar conclusiones
- Compare with the ticker's own history: 10% is high for EURUSD and low for bitcoin.
Ejemplo
EURUSD daily, HV(20) = 6%: one standard deviation of a year's moves is about 6%.
Los precios de los ejemplos son ilustrativos.
Ten cuidado con
- Backward-looking: it measures what has been, not what will be.
Un poco de historia
Standard deviation of returns became the textbook risk measure with modern portfolio theory (1950s) and option pricing (1970s).
Solo contenido educativo. Ningún indicador ni patrón predice el futuro, y nada de lo aquí expuesto es asesoramiento de inversión.