United States Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

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Why it matters

Government yields are the base of every other interest rate. Short maturities follow the Federal Reserve's policy rate closely; long ones reflect expected growth, inflation and the risk of holding long debt. Higher yields relative to other countries attract capital and support the US dollar; the gap between long and short yields (the yield curve) is a classic recession signal when it turns negative.

How it is calculated

The yield is the interest rate that makes the present value of the bond's coupons and repayment equal to its price; on a calendar it often reports the average yield at a government auction.

Price = Σ coupon ÷ (1 + y)ᵗ + face ÷ (1 + y)ᵀ
Inflation-linked (TIPS) yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation

What changes mean

• Yields rise when prices of bonds fall: strong data and hawkish central banks push yields up.
• An inverted curve (2-year above 10-year) has preceded most US recessions, with a lag of a year or more.
• Inflation-linked yields show the real (after-inflation) return.

A short history

Government bond markets go back to the Dutch and English debt of the 17th century; the US Treasury yield curve has been watched as a recession signal since research by Campbell Harvey in the 1980s.

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