PCE and GDP price indexes · United States
United States PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est
The United States PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est measures the prices of everything households (PCE) or the whole economy (deflator) buy. In the United States it is one of the main measures of inflation.
- Importance
- Medium
- Released
- Quarterly
- Next release
- Currency
- USD · US dollar
- Central bank
- The Federal Reserve
Latest figures
The latest release for Q2, published on 26 August 2026, came in at 5.3%, above the consensus of 5.1%, up from 4.6% the time before.
A higher figure than expected makes the Federal Reserve more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the US dollar and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
Over the last 6 releases it ranged from 2.0% to 5.3%, averaging 3.4%; it has been rising for three releases in a row.
| Released | For | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Aug 2026 | Q2 | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% |
| 28 May 2026 | Q1 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| 13 Mar 2026 | Q4 | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 28 Aug 2025 | Q2 | 2% | 2.1% | 3.7% |
| 29 May 2025 | Q1 | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.4% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | Q4 | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.5% |
Why it matters
In the United States the Federal Reserve's 2% target is defined on the PCE price index, and the core measure (without food and energy) is the one policymakers quote most. Because CPI comes out first, markets usually know roughly what PCE will show; surprises come from the parts measured differently, such as health care.
How it is calculated
PCE prices are built from the same price data as CPI and producer prices, but weighted by what households actually spend (including what is paid on their behalf, like employer health insurance), and the weights change every period. The GDP deflator divides nominal GDP by real GDP.
Deflator = nominal GDP ÷ real GDP × 100
PCE inflation = PCE index ÷ PCE index a year ago − 1What changes mean
- Core PCE above 2% and rising keeps the Fed cautious about cutting rates.
- The monthly change annualised (× 12) shows the latest pace; three-month averages smooth the noise.
Higher than expected: A higher figure than expected makes the Federal Reserve more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the US dollar and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
Lower than expected: A lower figure than expected gives the Federal Reserve room to cut or hold rates lower: the US dollar tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
A short history
The Fed switched its preferred inflation measure from CPI to PCE in 2000 and wrote the 2% PCE target into its strategy in 2012.
Questions
What is the United States PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est?
The United States PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est measures the prices of everything households (PCE) or the whole economy (deflator) buy. In the United States it is one of the main measures of inflation.
What was the latest United States PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est?
5.3% for Q2, published on 26 August 2026 (consensus 5.1%, previous 4.6%).
When is the next United States PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est?
On Wednesday 25 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Educational content only, not investment advice. Figures are the published results as recorded by our calendar; market reactions described are typical, not guaranteed.