United States Nonfarm Payrolls Private

Latest figures

The latest release for SEP, published on 2 October 2026, came in at 46K, below the consensus of 85K, down from 89K the time before (revised).

A weaker figure than expected points to slowing activity: the US dollar tends to soften and markets price in lower rates.

Over the last 12 releases it ranged from -86K to 186K, averaging 77K.

See it in the economic calendar →

Why it matters

The US non-farm payrolls report, released on the first Friday of most months, is often the single most market-moving economic release in the world. It moves the dollar, Treasury yields, gold and stock indices within seconds, because jobs drive spending and the Federal Reserve's decisions. ADP's private payrolls, two days earlier, are watched as a preview.

How it is calculated

The official figure comes from a survey of about 120,000 businesses and government agencies (the establishment survey) covering roughly 600,000 worksites. It counts jobs, not people, and excludes farm workers, private households and the self-employed. The two previous months are revised every time. ADP uses its own payroll-processing data.

Payrolls change = employees this month − employees last month (seasonally adjusted)

What changes mean

• Compare with the consensus and look at the revisions to the two previous months: together they decide the reaction.
• Read it with the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings, released at the same time.
• Job gains of about 100,000–150,000 a month are roughly what the US needs to keep up with population growth (less as immigration slows).

A short history

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Current Employment Statistics survey has collected payroll data since 1939. Markets began to trade the release intensely in the 1980s and 1990s.

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