Business confidence · United States
United States NFIB Business Optimism Index
The United States NFIB Business Optimism Index asks companies in the United States how they judge current business conditions and what they expect for the coming months.
- Importance
- Medium
- Released
- Monthly
- Next release
- Currency
- USD · US dollar
- Central bank
- The Federal Reserve
Latest figures
The latest release for SEP, published on 13 October 2026, came in at 97.9, below the consensus of 98, down from 98.7 the time before.
A weaker figure than expected points to slowing activity: the US dollar tends to soften and markets price in lower rates.
Over the last 12 releases it ranged from 95.3 to 99.8, averaging 98.0; it has been falling for three releases in a row.
| Released | For | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | SEP | 97.9 | 98 | 98.7 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | AUG | 98.7 | 99.3 | 99.8 |
| 11 Aug 2026 | JUL | 99.8 | 97.5 | 97.4 |
| 14 Jul 2026 | JUN | 97.4 | 95.8 | 95.3 |
| 9 Jun 2026 | MAY | 95.3 | 96.0 | 95.9 |
| 12 May 2026 | APR | 95.9 | 96.1 | 95.8 |
| 14 Apr 2026 | MAR | 95.8 | 98.6 | 98.8 |
| 10 Mar 2026 | FEB | 98.8 | 99.7 | 99.3 |
| 10 Feb 2026 | JAN | 99.3 | 99.9 | 99.5 |
| 13 Jan 2026 | DEC | 99.5 | 99.5 | 99.0 |
| 9 Dec 2025 | NOV | 99.0 | 98.4 | 98.2 |
| 11 Nov 2025 | OCT | 98.2 | 98.3 | 98.8 |
Why it matters
Confidence leads hiring and investment decisions, so these surveys often turn before the hard data. Germany's Ifo and ZEW, and Japan's Tankan, are among the most market-moving releases for the euro and the yen.
How it is calculated
Survey answers (better/same/worse) are turned into a balance (positive minus negative answers) or an index around a long-run average of 100; the release separates current conditions from expectations.
What changes mean
- The expectations component turns first; watch its direction over several months.
- A gap between strong current conditions and weak expectations often marks a peak.
Higher than expected: A stronger figure than expected points to a healthier economy: it usually supports the US dollar and local stocks, and can push bond yields up.
Lower than expected: A weaker figure than expected points to slowing activity: the US dollar tends to soften and markets price in lower rates.
A short history
Business tendency surveys began in Germany (Ifo) and other European countries after the Second World War; the Bank of Japan's Tankan has been run for decades, and the ZEW financial-expert survey since 1991.
Questions
What is the United States NFIB Business Optimism Index?
The United States NFIB Business Optimism Index asks companies in the United States how they judge current business conditions and what they expect for the coming months.
What was the latest United States NFIB Business Optimism Index?
97.9 for SEP, published on 13 October 2026 (consensus 98, previous 98.7).
When is the next United States NFIB Business Optimism Index?
On Tuesday 10 November 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Educational content only, not investment advice. Figures are the published results as recorded by our calendar; market reactions described are typical, not guaranteed.