United States FOMC Minutes

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Why it matters

The decision itself is known weeks earlier; the minutes show how close the committee was to a different decision and what would change its mind. Traders scan them for hints about the next move in the federal funds target range, so a more hawkish or dovish tone than expected moves the US dollar and short-term bond yields.

How it is calculated

There is no figure. The central bank's staff write a summary of the meeting, approved by the members and published on a set date (three weeks after the meeting for the Fed, four for the ECB's accounts).

What changes mean

• Count the references to inflation risks against growth risks.
• "Many" or "most" members holding a view means more than "a few" or "some".
• Disagreement in the committee often foreshadows a change of direction.

A short history

The Federal Reserve began publishing FOMC minutes with a delay of three weeks in 2005 (it used to wait for the next meeting); the Bank of England publishes minutes with each decision since 2015, and the ECB began publishing accounts of its meetings in 2015.

Questions