Wages and labour costs · United States
United States Employment Cost Index QoQ
The United States Employment Cost Index QoQ measures how fast pay, or the total cost of employing people, is rising in the United States.
- Importance
- Medium
- Released
- Quarterly
- Currency
- USD · US dollar
- Central bank
- The Federal Reserve
Latest figures
The latest release for Q3, published on 30 October 2026, came in at 0.8%, in line with the consensus of 0.8%, down from 0.9% the time before.
A result in line with the consensus usually causes little reaction: it was already priced in.
Over the last 8 releases it ranged from 0.7% to 0.9%, averaging 0.8%.
| Released | For | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | Q3 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| 31 Jul 2026 | Q2 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | Q1 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 10 Feb 2026 | Q4 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| 10 Dec 2025 | Q3 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | Q2 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | Q1 | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 31 Jan 2025 | Q4 | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
Why it matters
Wages are the largest cost for service businesses, so wage growth well above productivity growth turns into lasting inflation. Central banks watch it to judge whether inflation will return to target; strong wage growth tends to keep the Federal Reserve hawkish.
How it is calculated
Pay data come from employer surveys, tax records or collective agreements; the release usually shows the change from a year earlier. Labour cost indexes include employers' social contributions and benefits.
Wage growth (yoy) = average pay ÷ average pay a year ago − 1
Real wage growth ≈ wage growth − inflationWhat changes mean
- Wage growth of about 3–3.5% is roughly consistent with 2% inflation when productivity grows about 1%.
- Compositional effects (low-paid workers losing jobs) can lift the average misleadingly.
Higher than expected: A higher figure than expected makes the Federal Reserve more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the US dollar and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
Lower than expected: A lower figure than expected gives the Federal Reserve room to cut or hold rates lower: the US dollar tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
A short history
The link between wages and inflation was described by A. W. Phillips in 1958 (the Phillips curve); it has weakened and strengthened over the decades but remains central to central-bank thinking.
Questions
What is the United States Employment Cost Index QoQ?
The United States Employment Cost Index QoQ measures how fast pay, or the total cost of employing people, is rising in the United States.
What was the latest United States Employment Cost Index QoQ?
0.8% for Q3, published on 30 October 2026 (consensus 0.8%, previous 0.9%).
Educational content only, not investment advice. Figures are the published results as recorded by our calendar; market reactions described are typical, not guaranteed.