Purchasing managers' index (PMI) · United States
United States Chicago PMI
The United States Chicago PMI is a monthly survey of purchasing managers in the United States that measures whether business activity, new orders, employment and prices are rising or falling.
- Importance
- Medium
- Released
- Monthly
- Next release
- Currency
- USD · US dollar
- Central bank
- The Federal Reserve
Latest figures
The latest release for OCT, published on 30 October 2026, came in at 55.3, below the consensus of 56.1, down from 58.8 the time before.
A weaker figure than expected points to slowing activity: the US dollar tends to soften and markets price in lower rates.
Over the last 12 releases it ranged from 36.3 to 62.7, averaging 52.6.
| Released | For | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | OCT | 55.3 | 56.1 | 58.8 |
| 30 Sep 2026 | SEP | 58.8 | 51.2 | 47.1 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | AUG | 47.1 | 58.3 | 57.6 |
| 31 Jul 2026 | JUL | 57.6 | 56 | 56.7 |
| 30 Jun 2026 | JUN | 56.7 | 58.1 | 62.7 |
| 29 May 2026 | MAY | 62.7 | 50.5 | 49.2 |
| 30 Apr 2026 | APR | 49.2 | 53 | 52.8 |
| 31 Mar 2026 | MAR | 52.8 | 55 | 57.7 |
| 27 Feb 2026 | FEB | 57.7 | 52.8 | 54.0 |
| 30 Jan 2026 | JAN | 54.0 | 44 | 42.7 ® |
| 30 Dec 2025 | DEC | 43.5 | 39.5 | 36.3 |
| 26 Nov 2025 | NOV | 36.3 | 44.3 | 43.8 |
Why it matters
PMIs are among the first data published for each month, weeks before official output figures, and they have a good record of tracking GDP. A reading above 50 means growth, below 50 contraction. Flash (preliminary) PMIs for the major economies can move currencies and stock indices strongly.
How it is calculated
Companies answer whether each item (output, new orders, employment, delivery times, stocks of purchases) is higher, the same or lower than a month earlier. Each answer set becomes a diffusion index; the manufacturing headline is a weighted average of five of them, the services headline is the activity question.
Diffusion index = % higher + ½ × % same
Manufacturing PMI = 0.30 new orders + 0.25 output + 0.20 employment + 0.15 delivery times (inverted) + 0.10 stocksWhat changes mean
- Above 50 and rising: an accelerating economy, supportive for the US dollar and local stocks.
- The composite PMI combines manufacturing and services and is the best single guide to GDP.
- Look at new orders (future activity) and prices charged (inflation pressure).
Higher than expected: A stronger figure than expected points to a healthier economy: it usually supports the US dollar and local stocks, and can push bond yields up.
Lower than expected: A weaker figure than expected points to slowing activity: the US dollar tends to soften and markets price in lower rates.
A short history
The PMI method comes from the US purchasing managers' survey of the 1940s; the PMIs now produced for more than 40 countries started in the UK in 1992 and spread across Europe and Asia in the following decades.
Questions
What is the United States Chicago PMI?
The United States Chicago PMI is a monthly survey of purchasing managers in the United States that measures whether business activity, new orders, employment and prices are rising or falling.
What was the latest United States Chicago PMI?
55.3 for OCT, published on 30 October 2026 (consensus 56.1, previous 58.8).
When is the next United States Chicago PMI?
On Monday 30 November 2026 at 14:45 UTC.
Why is 50 the key level of a PMI?
It is the point where as many companies report improvement as report deterioration: above it, activity is growing.
Educational content only, not investment advice. Figures are the published results as recorded by our calendar; market reactions described are typical, not guaranteed.