Business confidence · Japan
Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook
The Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook asks companies in Japan how they judge current business conditions and what they expect for the coming months.
- Importance
- Medium
- Released
- Quarterly
- Next release
- Currency
- JPY · Japanese yen
- Central bank
- The Bank of Japan
Latest figures
The latest release for Q3, published on 30 September 2026, came in at 21, below the consensus of 22, up from 17 the time before.
A weaker figure than expected points to slowing activity: the Japanese yen tends to soften and markets price in lower rates.
Over the last 7 releases it ranged from 12 to 21, averaging 15; it has been rising for three releases in a row.
| Released | For | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2026 | Q3 | 21 | 22 | 17 |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Q2 | 17 | 13 | 14 |
| 31 Mar 2026 | Q1 | 14 | 13 | 15 |
| 14 Dec 2025 | Q4 | 15 | 13 | 12 |
| 30 Sep 2025 | Q3 | 12 | 13 | 12 |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Q2 | 12 | 9 | 12 |
| 31 Mar 2025 | Q1 | 12 | 9 | 13 |
Why it matters
Confidence leads hiring and investment decisions, so these surveys often turn before the hard data. Germany's Ifo and ZEW, and Japan's Tankan, are among the most market-moving releases for the euro and the yen.
How it is calculated
Survey answers (better/same/worse) are turned into a balance (positive minus negative answers) or an index around a long-run average of 100; the release separates current conditions from expectations.
What changes mean
- The expectations component turns first; watch its direction over several months.
- A gap between strong current conditions and weak expectations often marks a peak.
Higher than expected: A stronger figure than expected points to a healthier economy: it usually supports the Japanese yen and local stocks, and can push bond yields up.
Lower than expected: A weaker figure than expected points to slowing activity: the Japanese yen tends to soften and markets price in lower rates.
A short history
Business tendency surveys began in Germany (Ifo) and other European countries after the Second World War; the Bank of Japan's Tankan has been run for decades, and the ZEW financial-expert survey since 1991.
Questions
What is the Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook?
The Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook asks companies in Japan how they judge current business conditions and what they expect for the coming months.
What was the latest Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook?
21 for Q3, published on 30 September 2026 (consensus 22, previous 17).
When is the next Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook?
On Sunday 13 December 2026 at 23:50 UTC.
Educational content only, not investment advice. Figures are the published results as recorded by our calendar; market reactions described are typical, not guaranteed.