Government bond yield · Japan
Japan 40-Year JGB Auction
The Japan 40-Year JGB Auction is the yield on Japan's government debt of that maturity: the annual return an investor earns by buying the bond or bill at today's price and holding it to maturity.
- Importance
- Low
- Released
- Quarterly
- Next release
- Currency
- JPY · Japanese yen
- Central bank
- The Bank of Japan
Latest figures
The latest release, published on 29 September 2026, came in at 4.125%, up from 3.865% the time before.
Over the last 10 releases it ranged from 2.570% to 4.125%, averaging 3.393%; it has been rising for three releases in a row.
| Released | For | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2026 | – | 4.125% | – | 3.865% |
| 27 May 2026 | – | 3.840% | – | 3.600% |
| 24 Mar 2026 | – | 3.600% | – | 3.720% |
| 28 Jan 2026 | – | 3.720% | – | 3.555% |
| 26 Nov 2025 | – | 3.555% | – | 3.300% |
| 25 Sep 2025 | – | 3.300% | – | 3.375% |
| 23 Jul 2025 | – | 3.375% | – | 3.135% |
| 28 May 2025 | – | 3.135% | – | 2.710% |
| 27 Mar 2025 | – | 2.710% | – | 2.570% |
| 21 Jan 2025 | – | 2.570% | – | 2.550% |
Why it matters
Government yields are the base of every other interest rate. Short maturities follow the Bank of Japan's policy rate closely; long ones reflect expected growth, inflation and the risk of holding long debt. Higher yields relative to other countries attract capital and support the Japanese yen; the gap between long and short yields (the yield curve) is a classic recession signal when it turns negative.
How it is calculated
The yield is the interest rate that makes the present value of the bond's coupons and repayment equal to its price; on a calendar it often reports the average yield at a government auction.
Price = Σ coupon ÷ (1 + y)ᵗ + face ÷ (1 + y)ᵀ
Inflation-linked (TIPS) yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflationWhat changes mean
- Yields rise when prices of bonds fall: strong data and hawkish central banks push yields up.
- An inverted curve (2-year above 10-year) has preceded most US recessions, with a lag of a year or more.
- Inflation-linked yields show the real (after-inflation) return.
A short history
Government bond markets go back to the Dutch and English debt of the 17th century; the US Treasury yield curve has been watched as a recession signal since research by Campbell Harvey in the 1980s.
Questions
What is the Japan 40-Year JGB Auction?
The Japan 40-Year JGB Auction is the yield on Japan's government debt of that maturity: the annual return an investor earns by buying the bond or bill at today's price and holding it to maturity.
What was the latest Japan 40-Year JGB Auction?
4.125%, published on 29 September 2026.
When is the next Japan 40-Year JGB Auction?
On Wednesday 25 November 2026 at 03:35 UTC.
Educational content only, not investment advice. Figures are the published results as recorded by our calendar; market reactions described are typical, not guaranteed.