Inflation rate (consumer prices) · Bulgaria
Bulgaria Inflation Rate YoY Prel
The Bulgaria Inflation Rate YoY Prel measures how much the prices that households in Bulgaria pay for a typical basket of goods and services have risen over the past year.
- Importance
- Medium
- Released
- Monthly
- Next release
- Currency
- EUR · euro
- Central bank
- The European Central Bank (with the Bulgarian National Bank)
Latest figures
The latest release for SEP, published on 1 October 2026, came in at 5.6%, up from 5.1% the time before.
Over the last 8 releases it ranged from 3.3% to 7.1%, averaging 5.2%; it has been rising for three releases in a row.
| Released | For | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | SEP | 5.6% | – | 5.1% |
| 31 Aug 2026 | AUG | 5.1% | – | 4.5% |
| 30 Jul 2026 | JUL | 4.4% | – | 5.4% |
| 30 Jun 2026 | JUN | 5.6% | – | 6.9% |
| 1 Jun 2026 | MAY | 7.0% | – | 6.8% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | APR | 7.1% | – | 4.1% |
| 30 Mar 2026 | MAR | 3.9% | – | 3.3% |
| 2 Mar 2026 | FEB | 3.3% | – | 3.5% |
Why it matters
Inflation is what the European Central Bank (with the Bulgarian National Bank) is charged with controlling, so this is one of the most market-moving releases of the month. A figure above expectations makes rate hikes (or a longer wait for cuts) more likely, which usually lifts the euro and bond yields; a soft figure does the reverse. It also drives wages, pensions and benefits that are linked to prices.
How it is calculated
the National Statistical Institute collects many thousands of prices every month (food, rent, energy, transport, clothing, services) and weights them by how much households spend on each, from household surveys. The index compares the cost of the basket with a base year; the inflation rate is the change from the same month a year earlier.
CPI = Σ (price now ÷ base price) × weight × 100
Inflation (yoy) = CPI ÷ CPI 12 months ago − 1What changes mean
- Above the central bank's target (usually 2%) and rising: pressure for higher rates.
- Look at the core rate and services prices to see if the move is broad or driven by energy and food.
- Base effects: a big jump a year ago drops out of the yearly rate and can make it fall even if prices keep rising.
- Markets react to the difference from the consensus, often to a single decimal.
Higher than expected: A higher figure than expected makes the European Central Bank (with the Bulgarian National Bank) more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the euro and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
Lower than expected: A lower figure than expected gives the European Central Bank (with the Bulgarian National Bank) room to cut or hold rates lower: the euro tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
A short history
The United States began publishing a national consumer price index in 1919, the United Kingdom's index goes back to 1914. Inflation targeting, started by New Zealand in 1990, made this release the centre of monetary policy almost everywhere.
Bulgaria adopted the euro on 1 January 2026.
Questions
What is the Bulgaria Inflation Rate YoY Prel?
The Bulgaria Inflation Rate YoY Prel measures how much the prices that households in Bulgaria pay for a typical basket of goods and services have risen over the past year.
What was the latest Bulgaria Inflation Rate YoY Prel?
5.6% for SEP, published on 1 October 2026.
When is the next Bulgaria Inflation Rate YoY Prel?
On Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 09:00 UTC.
What is a good inflation rate?
Most central banks, including the European Central Bank (with the Bulgarian National Bank) in many cases, aim for about 2% a year: low enough not to erode savings, high enough to avoid deflation.
Why does the Bulgaria Inflation Rate YoY Prel move the euro?
Because it changes what traders expect the European Central Bank (with the Bulgarian National Bank) to do with the ECB's rates, and interest rates decide what holding the currency pays.
Educational content only, not investment advice. Figures are the published results as recorded by our calendar; market reactions described are typical, not guaranteed.