Turkey End Year CPI Forecast

最新数据

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为何重要

Expectations feed into wage demands and price setting, so inflation can become self-fulfilling. Central banks watch them closely: well-anchored expectations near the target let the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye look through temporary price jumps.

计算方法

Survey respondents give their own estimate of future price growth; the release reports the median or average. Market-based versions use the gap between ordinary and inflation-linked bond yields.

变化意味着什么

• Rising long-term expectations are a red flag for central banks.
• Short-term expectations follow petrol and food prices closely.

简史

Expectations became central to economics with the work of Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps in the late 1960s; the University of Michigan has asked US households about the prices they expect since its first surveys after the Second World War, and for a numeric inflation rate since the late 1970s.

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