Interest rate decision · Poland
Poland Interest Rate Decision
The Poland Interest Rate Decision is the National Bank of Poland's announcement of its main policy rate, the reference rate. It is the price of money in Poland: banks' borrowing costs, mortgage and loan rates and the return on cash all move with it.
- Важность
- Medium
- Опубликовано
- Monthly
- Следующая публикация
- Валюта
- PLN · Polish zloty
- Центральный банк
- The National Bank of Poland
Последние данные
Последняя публикация, за NOV, вышла 2026-11-04; значение: 3.75%. Это соответствует консенсус-прогнозу 3.75%. Без изменений по сравнению с 3.75% в прошлый раз.
Результат в рамках консенсуса обычно вызывает слабую реакцию: он уже заложен в цену.
За последние 12 публикаций значение колебалось от 3.75% до 4.25%, в среднем 3.85%.
| Опубликовано | Для | Факт | Консенсус | Предыдущее |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov 2026 | NOV | 3.75% | 3.75% | 3.75% |
| 7 Oct 2026 | OCT | 3.75% | 3.75% | 3.75% |
| 9 Sep 2026 | SEP | 3.75% | 3.75% | 3.75% |
| 8 Jul 2026 | JUL | 3.75% | 3.75% | 3.75% |
| 2 Jun 2026 | JUN | 3.75% | 3.75% | 3.75% |
| 6 May 2026 | MAY | 3.75% | 3.75% | 3.75% |
| 9 Apr 2026 | APR | 3.75% | 3.75% | 3.75% |
| 4 Mar 2026 | MAR | 3.75% | 3.75% | 4% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | FEB | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| 14 Jan 2026 | JAN | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| 3 Dec 2025 | DEC | 4% | 4% | 4.25% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | NOV | 4.25% | 4.25% | 4.5% |
Почему это важно
No release moves markets more directly. The rate decides what holding the Polish zloty pays, so the currency, government bond yields, bank shares and the whole stock market react within seconds. Markets usually price the decision in advance, so the surprise, and the tone of the statement and press conference, matter as much as the number: a hold with a hawkish message can lift the currency more than an expected hike.
Как считается
There is nothing to calculate: the rate is set by a vote of the central bank's policy committee at scheduled meetings. The committee weighs inflation against its target, the labour market, growth and financial conditions. Most decisions move in steps of 0.25 percentage point; 0.50 or more signals urgency.
Taylor rule (a rough guide many economists use):
rate ≈ neutral rate + inflation + 0.5 × (inflation − target) + 0.5 × output gapЧто означают изменения
- Compare the decision with the consensus: a surprise move is rare and causes the largest reactions.
- Read the statement for changes in wording; "further tightening may be needed" versus "policy is appropriate" is what traders act on.
- Look at the vote split: dissents in one direction often foreshadow the next move.
- A hike or hawkish hold usually lifts the Polish zloty and bond yields; a cut or dovish tone does the opposite. Stocks usually prefer lower rates unless the cut signals a weakening economy.
Выше ожиданий: A higher rate than expected (or a hawkish surprise) usually lifts the Polish zloty and bond yields and weighs on stocks.
Ниже ожиданий: A lower rate than expected usually weakens the Polish zloty, lowers bond yields and supports stocks.
Краткая история
Central banks have set lending rates since the Bank of England raised its Bank Rate in the 18th and 19th centuries to defend its gold reserves. Since New Zealand adopted formal inflation targeting in 1990, most central banks set rates to keep inflation near a target, usually 2%.
Вопросы
What is the Poland Interest Rate Decision?
The Poland Interest Rate Decision is the National Bank of Poland's announcement of its main policy rate, the reference rate. It is the price of money in Poland: banks' borrowing costs, mortgage and loan rates and the return on cash all move with it.
What was the latest Poland Interest Rate Decision?
3.75% for NOV, published on 4 November 2026 (consensus 3.75%, previous 3.75%).
When is the next Poland Interest Rate Decision?
On Wednesday 2 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
When is the Poland Interest Rate Decision announced?
On the dates of the National Bank of Poland's scheduled policy meetings, published a year in advance; the calendar above shows the next one.
Why do markets move before the decision?
Interest-rate futures and swaps price the expected decision days ahead; on the day, only the difference from those expectations moves prices.
Только образовательный материал, не инвестиционная рекомендация. Цифры — опубликованные результаты в том виде, в каком их записал наш календарь; описанные реакции рынка типичны, но не гарантированы.