Interest rate decision · Brazil
Brazil Interest Rate Decision
The Brazil Interest Rate Decision is the Banco Central do Brasil's announcement of its main policy rate, the Selic rate. It is the price of money in Brazil: banks' borrowing costs, mortgage and loan rates and the return on cash all move with it.
- חשיבות
- Medium
- פורסם
- About every six weeks
- הפרסום הבא
- מטבע
- BRL · Brazilian real
- בנק מרכזי
- The Banco Central do Brasil
הנתונים האחרונים
הפרסום האחרון יצא ב-2026-11-04 ועמד על 13.75%. זה תואם את הקונצנזוס של 13.75%. ללא שינוי לעומת 13.75% בפעם הקודמת.
תוצאה בהתאם לקונצנזוס גורמת בדרך כלל לתגובה קטנה: היא כבר תומחרה.
ב-12 הפרסומים האחרונים הערך נע בין 13.75% ל-15.00%, בממוצע 14.58%.
| פורסם | עבור | בפועל | קונצנזוס | קודם |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov 2026 | – | 13.75% | 13.75% | 13.75% |
| 16 Sep 2026 | – | 13.75% | 13.75% | 14% |
| 5 Aug 2026 | – | 14% | 14.0% | 14.25% |
| 17 Jun 2026 | – | 14.25% | 14.25% | 14.5% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | – | 14.5% | 14.5% | 14.75% |
| 18 Mar 2026 | – | 14.75% | 14.50% | 15% |
| 28 Jan 2026 | – | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| 10 Dec 2025 | – | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | – | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| 17 Sep 2025 | – | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | – | 15% | 15.0% | 15% |
| 18 Jun 2025 | – | 15% | 14.75% | 14.75% |
למה זה חשוב
No release moves markets more directly. The rate decides what holding the Brazilian real pays, so the currency, government bond yields, bank shares and the whole stock market react within seconds. Markets usually price the decision in advance, so the surprise, and the tone of the statement and press conference, matter as much as the number: a hold with a hawkish message can lift the currency more than an expected hike.
איך זה מחושב
There is nothing to calculate: the rate is set by a vote of the central bank's policy committee at scheduled meetings. The committee weighs inflation against its target, the labour market, growth and financial conditions. Most decisions move in steps of 0.25 percentage point; 0.50 or more signals urgency.
Taylor rule (a rough guide many economists use):
rate ≈ neutral rate + inflation + 0.5 × (inflation − target) + 0.5 × output gapמה המשמעות של שינויים
- Compare the decision with the consensus: a surprise move is rare and causes the largest reactions.
- Read the statement for changes in wording; "further tightening may be needed" versus "policy is appropriate" is what traders act on.
- Look at the vote split: dissents in one direction often foreshadow the next move.
- A hike or hawkish hold usually lifts the Brazilian real and bond yields; a cut or dovish tone does the opposite. Stocks usually prefer lower rates unless the cut signals a weakening economy.
גבוה מהצפוי: A higher rate than expected (or a hawkish surprise) usually lifts the Brazilian real and bond yields and weighs on stocks.
נמוך מהצפוי: A lower rate than expected usually weakens the Brazilian real, lowers bond yields and supports stocks.
היסטוריה קצרה
Central banks have set lending rates since the Bank of England raised its Bank Rate in the 18th and 19th centuries to defend its gold reserves. Since New Zealand adopted formal inflation targeting in 1990, most central banks set rates to keep inflation near a target, usually 2%.
שאלות
What is the Brazil Interest Rate Decision?
The Brazil Interest Rate Decision is the Banco Central do Brasil's announcement of its main policy rate, the Selic rate. It is the price of money in Brazil: banks' borrowing costs, mortgage and loan rates and the return on cash all move with it.
What was the latest Brazil Interest Rate Decision?
13.75%, published on 4 November 2026 (consensus 13.75%, previous 13.75%).
When is the next Brazil Interest Rate Decision?
On Wednesday 9 December 2026 at 21:30 UTC.
When is the Brazil Interest Rate Decision announced?
On the dates of the Banco Central do Brasil's scheduled policy meetings, published a year in advance; the calendar above shows the next one.
Why do markets move before the decision?
Interest-rate futures and swaps price the expected decision days ahead; on the day, only the difference from those expectations moves prices.
תוכן לימודי בלבד, לא ייעוץ השקעות. הנתונים הם התוצאות שפורסמו כפי שנרשמו ביומן שלנו; תגובות השוק המתוארות אופייניות, לא מובטחות.