XAUUSD D1 analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) | Daily Technical Analysis | October 26, 2026

Is gold preparing for a corrective rebound after a strong bearish move?

On the daily chart, XAUUSD has declined from 4,696.66 to 3,975.59, forming a potential five-wave bearish Elliott impulse. Recent price action, however, is showing early signs of a possible reversal.

Here are the key technical observations:

📉 Elliott Wave Structure
The five-wave decline appears structurally valid, suggesting the bearish impulse may be approaching completion. However, a valid wave count does not guarantee that the low is final.

🕯️ Potential Tweezer Bottom
The recent price action around 3,975–3,989 suggests a possible support zone. The latest daily candle closed at 4,064.29, near its high, indicating a strong recovery during the session.

📊 Key Resistance Levels
If the rebound continues, these are the levels I will be watching:

• 4,158 — 50-day EMA
• 4,217 — Previous Wave 4 high
• 4,251 — 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
• 4,336 — 50% retracement
• 4,421 — 61.8% retracement

⚠️ What Could Invalidate the Bullish Scenario?

A decisive break below 3,975.59 would weaken the potential bottoming pattern. A move below 3,939.54 would invalidate my current interpretation of the completed five-wave decline.

📈 Momentum Still Matters

The ADX is elevated at 53.22, while −DI (16.02) remains above +DI (7.72). This suggests that bearish directional momentum still dominates, despite the latest recovery.

My view: Gold may be setting up for a corrective rally, but confirmation is still needed. The 4,158 EMA and 4,217 resistance will be important tests for buyers.

The key is to distinguish a temporary bounce from a genuine trend reversal and manage risk accordingly.

What is your view on XAUUSD? Are we approaching the end of the correction, or could gold make another low before recovering?

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