Purchasing managers' index (PMI) · United States
United States Chicago PMI
The United States Chicago PMI is a monthly survey of purchasing managers in the United States that measures whether business activity, new orders, employment and prices are rising or falling.
- اهمیت
- Medium
- منتشرشده
- Monthly
- انتشار بعدی
- ارز
- USD · US dollar
- بانک مرکزی
- The Federal Reserve
آخرین ارقام
آخرین انتشار، برای OCT، در 2026-10-30 منتشر شد و 55.3 بود. این پایین‌تر از اجماع 56.1 است. این کمتر از 58.8 در دفعه قبل است.
A weaker figure than expected points to slowing activity: the US dollar tends to soften and markets price in lower rates.
در 12 انتشار اخیر بین 36.3 و 62.7 بود، با میانگین 52.6.
| منتشرشده | برای | واقعی | پیش‌بینی | قبلی |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | OCT | 55.3 | 56.1 | 58.8 |
| 30 Sep 2026 | SEP | 58.8 | 51.2 | 47.1 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | AUG | 47.1 | 58.3 | 57.6 |
| 31 Jul 2026 | JUL | 57.6 | 56 | 56.7 |
| 30 Jun 2026 | JUN | 56.7 | 58.1 | 62.7 |
| 29 May 2026 | MAY | 62.7 | 50.5 | 49.2 |
| 30 Apr 2026 | APR | 49.2 | 53 | 52.8 |
| 31 Mar 2026 | MAR | 52.8 | 55 | 57.7 |
| 27 Feb 2026 | FEB | 57.7 | 52.8 | 54.0 |
| 30 Jan 2026 | JAN | 54.0 | 44 | 42.7 ® |
| 30 Dec 2025 | DEC | 43.5 | 39.5 | 36.3 |
| 26 Nov 2025 | NOV | 36.3 | 44.3 | 43.8 |
چرا مهم است
PMIs are among the first data published for each month, weeks before official output figures, and they have a good record of tracking GDP. A reading above 50 means growth, below 50 contraction. Flash (preliminary) PMIs for the major economies can move currencies and stock indices strongly.
روش محاسبه
Companies answer whether each item (output, new orders, employment, delivery times, stocks of purchases) is higher, the same or lower than a month earlier. Each answer set becomes a diffusion index; the manufacturing headline is a weighted average of five of them, the services headline is the activity question.
Diffusion index = % higher + ½ × % same
Manufacturing PMI = 0.30 new orders + 0.25 output + 0.20 employment + 0.15 delivery times (inverted) + 0.10 stocksتغییرات چه معنایی دارند
- Above 50 and rising: an accelerating economy, supportive for the US dollar and local stocks.
- The composite PMI combines manufacturing and services and is the best single guide to GDP.
- Look at new orders (future activity) and prices charged (inflation pressure).
بالاتر از انتظار: A stronger figure than expected points to a healthier economy: it usually supports the US dollar and local stocks, and can push bond yields up.
پایین‌تر از انتظار: A weaker figure than expected points to slowing activity: the US dollar tends to soften and markets price in lower rates.
تاریخچه‌ای کوتاه
The PMI method comes from the US purchasing managers' survey of the 1940s; the PMIs now produced for more than 40 countries started in the UK in 1992 and spread across Europe and Asia in the following decades.
پرسش‌ها
What is the United States Chicago PMI?
The United States Chicago PMI is a monthly survey of purchasing managers in the United States that measures whether business activity, new orders, employment and prices are rising or falling.
What was the latest United States Chicago PMI?
55.3 for OCT, published on 30 October 2026 (consensus 56.1, previous 58.8).
When is the next United States Chicago PMI?
On Monday 30 November 2026 at 14:45 UTC.
Why is 50 the key level of a PMI?
It is the point where as many companies report improvement as report deterioration: above it, activity is growing.
فقط محتوای آموزشی است، نه توصیه سرمایه‌گذاری. ارقام نتایج منتشرشده‌اند که تقویم ما ثبت کرده است؛ واکنش‌های بازار که توصیف شده‌اند معمول‌اند، نه تضمینی.