Interest rate decision · Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia Interest Rate Decision
The Saudi Arabia Interest Rate Decision is the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA)'s announcement of its main policy rate, the repo rate. It is the price of money in Saudi Arabia: banks' borrowing costs, mortgage and loan rates and the return on cash all move with it.
- اهمیت
- Medium
- منتشرشده
- About every six weeks
- ارز
- SAR · Saudi riyal
- بانک مرکزی
- The Saudi Central Bank (SAMA)
آخرین ارقام
آخرین انتشار در 2026-09-16 منتشر شد و 4.5% بود. این بیشتر از 4.25% در دفعه قبل است.
در 4 انتشار اخیر بین 4.2% و 4.8% بود، با میانگین 4.5%.
| منتشرشده | برای | واقعی | پیش‌بینی | قبلی |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2026 | – | 4.5% | – | 4.25% |
| 10 Dec 2025 | – | 4.25% | – | 4.50% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | – | 4.50% | – | 4.75% |
| 17 Sep 2025 | – | 4.75% | – | 5% |
چرا مهم است
No release moves markets more directly. The rate decides what holding the Saudi riyal pays, so the currency, government bond yields, bank shares and the whole stock market react within seconds. Markets usually price the decision in advance, so the surprise, and the tone of the statement and press conference, matter as much as the number: a hold with a hawkish message can lift the currency more than an expected hike.
روش محاسبه
There is nothing to calculate: the rate is set by a vote of the central bank's policy committee at scheduled meetings. The committee weighs inflation against its target, the labour market, growth and financial conditions. Most decisions move in steps of 0.25 percentage point; 0.50 or more signals urgency.
Taylor rule (a rough guide many economists use):
rate ≈ neutral rate + inflation + 0.5 × (inflation − target) + 0.5 × output gapتغییرات چه معنایی دارند
- Compare the decision with the consensus: a surprise move is rare and causes the largest reactions.
- Read the statement for changes in wording; "further tightening may be needed" versus "policy is appropriate" is what traders act on.
- Look at the vote split: dissents in one direction often foreshadow the next move.
- A hike or hawkish hold usually lifts the Saudi riyal and bond yields; a cut or dovish tone does the opposite. Stocks usually prefer lower rates unless the cut signals a weakening economy.
بالاتر از انتظار: A higher rate than expected (or a hawkish surprise) usually lifts the Saudi riyal and bond yields and weighs on stocks.
پایین‌تر از انتظار: A lower rate than expected usually weakens the Saudi riyal, lowers bond yields and supports stocks.
تاریخچه‌ای کوتاه
Central banks have set lending rates since the Bank of England raised its Bank Rate in the 18th and 19th centuries to defend its gold reserves. Since New Zealand adopted formal inflation targeting in 1990, most central banks set rates to keep inflation near a target, usually 2%.
The riyal is pegged to the US dollar, so Saudi rates follow the Fed.
پرسش‌ها
What is the Saudi Arabia Interest Rate Decision?
The Saudi Arabia Interest Rate Decision is the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA)'s announcement of its main policy rate, the repo rate. It is the price of money in Saudi Arabia: banks' borrowing costs, mortgage and loan rates and the return on cash all move with it.
What was the latest Saudi Arabia Interest Rate Decision?
4.5%, published on 16 September 2026.
When is the Saudi Arabia Interest Rate Decision announced?
On the dates of the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA)'s scheduled policy meetings, published a year in advance; the calendar above shows the next one.
Why do markets move before the decision?
Interest-rate futures and swaps price the expected decision days ahead; on the day, only the difference from those expectations moves prices.
فقط محتوای آموزشی است، نه توصیه سرمایه‌گذاری. ارقام نتایج منتشرشده‌اند که تقویم ما ثبت کرده است؛ واکنش‌های بازار که توصیف شده‌اند معمول‌اند، نه تضمینی.