United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Hike

Latest figures

The latest release, published on 17 September 2026, came in at 3/9, in line with the consensus of 3/9, unchanged from 3 the time before.

A result in line with the consensus usually causes little reaction: it was already priced in.

Over the last 12 releases it ranged from 0 to 3, averaging 0.8.

See it in the economic calendar →

Why it matters

No release moves markets more directly. The rate decides what holding the pound sterling pays, so the currency, government bond yields, bank shares and the whole stock market react within seconds. Markets usually price the decision in advance, so the surprise, and the tone of the statement and press conference, matter as much as the number: a hold with a hawkish message can lift the currency more than an expected hike.

How it is calculated

There is nothing to calculate: the rate is set by a vote of the central bank's policy committee at scheduled meetings. The committee weighs inflation against its target, the labour market, growth and financial conditions. Most decisions move in steps of 0.25 percentage point; 0.50 or more signals urgency.

Taylor rule (a rough guide many economists use):
rate ≈ neutral rate + inflation + 0.5 × (inflation − target) + 0.5 × output gap

What changes mean

• Compare the decision with the consensus: a surprise move is rare and causes the largest reactions.
• Read the statement for changes in wording; "further tightening may be needed" versus "policy is appropriate" is what traders act on.
• Look at the vote split: dissents in one direction often foreshadow the next move.
• A hike or hawkish hold usually lifts the pound sterling and bond yields; a cut or dovish tone does the opposite. Stocks usually prefer lower rates unless the cut signals a weakening economy.

A short history

Central banks have set lending rates since the Bank of England raised its Bank Rate in the 18th and 19th centuries to defend its gold reserves. Since New Zealand adopted formal inflation targeting in 1990, most central banks set rates to keep inflation near a target, usually 2%.

Questions