Sao Tome And Principe Presidential Election

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Why it matters

Elections can change fiscal policy, trade policy and the independence of institutions, so markets price the outcome in advance. Surprises move the the local currency, local stocks and government bonds, sometimes sharply; uncertainty before the vote often raises option prices.

How it is calculated

There is no figure: the outcome is the result of the vote, often over one or two rounds.

What changes mean

• Compare the result with polls and betting markets: the surprise drives the reaction.
• Coalition talks after the vote can keep uncertainty high for weeks.

A short history

Election risk became a regular part of market analysis after shocks such as the UK's Brexit referendum and the US presidential election, both in 2016.

Questions