Japan BOJ Himino Speech

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Why it matters

Policymakers use speeches to prepare markets for decisions. A governor or chair can move the Japanese yen and bond yields with a single sentence about the outlook for the short-term policy rate; members who vote on rates matter more than those who do not, and a change in a usually predictable speaker's tone matters most.

How it is calculated

There is no figure; what matters is whether the remarks change expectations for rates.

What changes mean

• Listen for the balance between inflation worries (hawkish) and growth or job worries (dovish).
• Prepared remarks are released at the start; the questions afterwards often carry the surprises.
• Testimony before parliament or congress is usually the most market-moving.

A short history

For most of the 20th century central bankers said as little as possible; since the 1990s, communication and forward guidance have become policy tools in their own right.

Questions