Harmonised inflation (HICP) · Italy
Italy Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Final
The Italy Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Final measures consumer price inflation in Italy using the EU's harmonised method (HICP), so that it can be compared across countries.
- Importance
- Medium
- Released
- Monthly
- Next release
- Currency
- EUR · euro
- Central bank
- The European Central Bank (with the Banca d'Italia)
Latest figures
The latest release for SEP, published on 16 October 2026, came in at 4.2%, above the consensus of 4.1%, up from 3.2% the time before.
A higher figure than expected makes the European Central Bank (with the Banca d'Italia) more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the euro and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
Over the last 12 releases it ranged from 1.0% to 4.2%, averaging 2.2%; it has been rising for three releases in a row.
| Released | For | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2026 | SEP | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.2% |
| 16 Sep 2026 | AUG | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% |
| 12 Aug 2026 | JUL | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3% |
| 16 Jul 2026 | JUN | 3% | 3.1% | 3.2% |
| 16 Jun 2026 | MAY | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.8% |
| 15 May 2026 | APR | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.6% |
| 16 Apr 2026 | MAR | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| 17 Mar 2026 | FEB | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1% |
| 23 Feb 2026 | JAN | 1% | 1% | 1.2% |
| 16 Jan 2026 | DEC | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| 16 Dec 2025 | NOV | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% |
| 17 Nov 2025 | OCT | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% |
Why it matters
The European Central Bank's 2% target is defined on the euro area HICP. National HICP releases, especially Germany's, France's, Spain's and Italy's preliminary figures, arrive before the euro area total and move euro and bond markets as a preview.
How it is calculated
Each country's statistics office collects prices for a common basket and methods set by Eurostat; owner-occupied housing costs are left out, which is the main difference from many national CPIs.
HICP inflation (yoy) = HICP ÷ HICP 12 months ago − 1What changes mean
- A national HICP above expectations raises the odds of a hawkish ECB.
- Look at services and core components in the euro area release; energy drives most of the swings.
Higher than expected: A higher figure than expected makes the European Central Bank (with the Banca d'Italia) more likely to keep rates high or raise them: it tends to support the euro and push bond yields up, and is often a weight on stocks.
Lower than expected: A lower figure than expected gives the European Central Bank (with the Banca d'Italia) room to cut or hold rates lower: the euro tends to soften and bond yields to fall.
A short history
The HICP was introduced in 1997 to check whether countries met the inflation criterion for joining the euro; the ECB adopted it as its target measure when the euro started in 1999.
Questions
What is the Italy Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Final?
The Italy Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Final measures consumer price inflation in Italy using the EU's harmonised method (HICP), so that it can be compared across countries.
What was the latest Italy Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Final?
4.2% for SEP, published on 16 October 2026 (consensus 4.1%, previous 3.2%).
When is the next Italy Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Final?
On Tuesday 17 November 2026 at 09:00 UTC.
Educational content only, not investment advice. Figures are the published results as recorded by our calendar; market reactions described are typical, not guaranteed.