Business confidence · Hong Kong
Hong Kong Business Confidence
The Hong Kong Business Confidence asks companies in Hong Kong how they judge current business conditions and what they expect for the coming months.
- Importance
- Medium
- Released
- Quarterly
- Currency
- HKD · Hong Kong dollar
- Central bank
- The Hong Kong Monetary Authority
Latest figures
The latest release for Q4, published on 16 October 2026, came in at 5, up from -4 the time before.
Over the last 8 releases it ranged from -10 to 5, averaging -4.5; it has been rising for three releases in a row.
| Released | For | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2026 | Q4 | 5 | – | -4 |
| 17 Jul 2026 | Q3 | -4 | – | -5 |
| 24 Apr 2026 | Q2 | -5 | – | -3 |
| 23 Jan 2026 | Q1 | -3 | – | -2 |
| 24 Oct 2025 | Q4 | -2 | – | -8 |
| 18 Jul 2025 | Q3 | -8 | – | -9 |
| 25 Apr 2025 | Q2 | -9 | – | -10 |
| 17 Jan 2025 | Q1 | -10 | – | -3 |
Why it matters
Confidence leads hiring and investment decisions, so these surveys often turn before the hard data. Germany's Ifo and ZEW, and Japan's Tankan, are among the most market-moving releases for the euro and the yen.
How it is calculated
Survey answers (better/same/worse) are turned into a balance (positive minus negative answers) or an index around a long-run average of 100; the release separates current conditions from expectations.
What changes mean
- The expectations component turns first; watch its direction over several months.
- A gap between strong current conditions and weak expectations often marks a peak.
Higher than expected: A stronger figure than expected points to a healthier economy: it usually supports the Hong Kong dollar and local stocks, and can push bond yields up.
Lower than expected: A weaker figure than expected points to slowing activity: the Hong Kong dollar tends to soften and markets price in lower rates.
A short history
Business tendency surveys began in Germany (Ifo) and other European countries after the Second World War; the Bank of Japan's Tankan has been run for decades, and the ZEW financial-expert survey since 1991.
The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar, so the base rate follows the Fed.
Questions
What is the Hong Kong Business Confidence?
The Hong Kong Business Confidence asks companies in Hong Kong how they judge current business conditions and what they expect for the coming months.
What was the latest Hong Kong Business Confidence?
5 for Q4, published on 16 October 2026.
Educational content only, not investment advice. Figures are the published results as recorded by our calendar; market reactions described are typical, not guaranteed.