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Channels

Linear regression and standard deviation channels

A best-fit line through the closes of a chosen period, with parallel lines showing how far prices strayed from it.

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用通俗的话解释

Instead of picking points by eye, let maths draw the line that best fits the prices. The outer lines show the normal spread (standard deviation channel) or the widest deviation (regression channel).

计算方法

Click the start and the end of the period. The centre line is the least-squares line through the closes. Standard deviation channel: ± 2 standard deviations; regression channel: ± the largest distance.

Centre = a + b × t (least-squares fit of the closes)
Std-dev channel: centre ± 2 × standard deviation of the distances
Regression channel: centre ± maximum distance

如何使用

  • Prices near the outer lines are stretched relative to the trend; near the centre, fairly valued.
  • The slope of the centre line is the average trend over the period.

得出结论

  • A close outside a standard deviation channel is statistically unusual.

示例

A 60-day regression on a stock index slopes up 0.2% a day; the price touches the lower line and rebounds to the centre.

示例中的价格仅作说明。

注意事项

  • The channel changes when you change the period: choose it deliberately.

一点历史

Least squares was published by Legendre (1805) and Gauss; Francis Galton coined "regression" in the 1880s.

仅供学习参考。 没有任何指标或形态能预测未来，本页内容均不构成投资建议。